Adam Livingston
VP of Investments at Strive, Bitcoin Focus
Gold's roughly 2% annual supply inflation compares badly with Bitcoin's diminishing supply inflation, a projection gold bugs refuse to make. A post the author replies to adds that about 95% of all Bitcoin has already been mined, that gold mining uses far more energy, and that gold's value against Bitcoin keeps falling over time. x.comÂ
Gold is losing to Bitcoin and heading toward zero against it, a gap that is accelerating. Measured in Bitcoin, gold is down 99.99% since 2011: one Bitcoin bought 0.0002 oz of gold then and over 16 oz today. Gold cannot be programmed, teleported, verified in milliseconds or held in memory with 12 words, making it a 5,000-year-old technology losing to a 16-year-old protocol. x.comÂ
Gold will see a diamond-like price decline if lab-grown gold takes hold. The quoted post says lab-grown diamonds halved diamond prices since 2016; gold is currently the largest asset class on Earth, so its money moving into Bitcoin could be consequential. x.comÂ
Bitcoin has seen only a fraction of the flows rotating out of gold into it. Gold has yet to go through all its price-pain capitulation, and then comes a period of time pain. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is under pressure because a sharply higher US 10-year yield, now 5.22%, makes holding a zero-yield asset expensive in opportunity cost. Gold fell 3% and silver 5% in a day after two weeks of rising yields. Gold has also moved inversely to bitcoin over the past week, a sign speculative flows are favoring crypto over real assets. x.comÂ
Gold could rise 1.5-2x against the US dollar, with bitcoin potentially doubling against gold, leaving anyone not holding risk assets badly exposed. x.comÂ
Gold-making machines are real, undermining gold's scarcity. Gold goes to zero; unlike Bitcoin, whose supply is fixed at 21 million, new gold can be made. x.comÂ
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Central-bank gold accumulation may be an early warning of inflation, adding to gold's reserve-demand case. Gold's share of non-US central-bank reserves has risen to 24%; the last comparable surge preceded double-digit inflation. Inflation is nowhere near that level today, but central banks buying about 1,000 tonnes a year suggest they do not consider it settled and see debt rising. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
A gold-trade unwind might be the real catalyst to send Bitcoin higher, rather than the AI-trade unwind many expect. The gold unwind is already happening: since late July, gold futures are down 0.7% while Bitcoin is up 26.5%. x.com x.comÂ
