Micro2Macr0
Macro Economist
Bitcoin, Ethereum and a few other cryptos are the one good long-duration option left, while gold looks less positive. Gold faces the law of large numbers and has already had its parabolic run. Equities face margin compression as it gets harder to tell which companies stay relevant in an age of AI, and real estate should devalue over time as the cost of building a house falls sharply, besides needing maintenance and being illiquid, especially in a downturn. x.comÂ
Gold-making machines are real, undermining gold's scarcity. Gold goes to zero; unlike Bitcoin, whose supply is fixed at 21 million, new gold can be made. x.comÂ
Bitcoin benefits as the risk of creating gold through alchemy has entered public consciousness. That perceived threat to gold's scarcity supports a long Bitcoin position as a persistent theme. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold should peak and then fall over the next 10-15 years as advancing technology and robotics make it easier to find and mine new supply. Diamonds show the pattern: more supply entering circulation has pushed prices down 70% from their 2011 high to the lowest this century. As gold falls, bitcoin should rise more aggressively as its scarcity compounds and demand increases. x.comÂ
A gold-trade unwind might be the real catalyst to send Bitcoin higher, rather than the AI-trade unwind many expect. The gold unwind is already happening: since late July, gold futures are down 0.7% while Bitcoin is up 26.5%. x.com x.comÂ
Gold faces confiscation risk that Bitcoin held through memorized seed words may avoid. Americans had to surrender gold for $20.67 an ounce in 1933; a year later it was priced at $35. That risk does not overturn owning both. x.comÂ
Gold's roughly 2% annual supply inflation compares badly with Bitcoin's diminishing supply inflation, a projection gold bugs refuse to make. A post the author replies to adds that about 95% of all Bitcoin has already been mined, that gold mining uses far more energy, and that gold's value against Bitcoin keeps falling over time. x.comÂ
Gold has formed a multi-year top at $5.6K and won't return there before 2030. It is in a high-timeframe distribution phase, with trillions of dollars rotating out of gold into US equities, bitcoin and Chinese equities, fueling the next risk-on environment. Silver showed a classic blow-off top, and the same applies to gold. x.comÂ
Gold is a forever asset because money can be printed, while gold was there before money and will remain after it. Diamonds, by contrast, are finished now that De Beers' monopoly has been exposed. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's fixed 21 million supply makes it preferable to oil, gold and silver, whose higher prices encourage more production. Sell those three commodities and buy Bitcoin. A gold-normalized historical scarcity-resistance ranking scores silver 83.6 and WTI oil 72.1 against gold's 100; it tracks historical loss of purchasing power to Bitcoin, not physical scarcity. x.com x.com x.comÂ