Charlie Garcia
Founder & Managing Partner of R360, Entrepreneur/Author, Veteran
Gold should keep outperforming because Trump is compelling Iran rather than deterring it, keeping Iranian crude offline longer than the market expects. His policy follows Thomas Schelling's playbook: a blockade switched on and off, a Pakistani back-channel, and five ceasefire extensions with no deal, all punishment until Iran acts. Brent's price shows the market disbelieves this; the Q3 diesel cliff is the mechanism, not a risk. In this Schelling trade, energy pays and cash waits. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold will see a diamond-like price decline if lab-grown gold takes hold. The quoted post says lab-grown diamonds halved diamond prices since 2016; gold is currently the largest asset class on Earth, so its money moving into Bitcoin could be consequential. x.comÂ
Gold and silver are where everyone will put their money as savings come under threat. EU citizens should save in gold, silver and bitcoin because Ursula von der Leyen is about to go after their savings amid stagnation and rights restrictions. Luke Gromen notes the dollar has fallen 93% measured in gold since September 2001. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is worth accumulating steadily as a hard-currency household reserve against sudden upheaval or disaster, not as a trade. Physical bars kept in a bank vault are easier to hold than paper gold or index funds, which sell with a click. Gold's pullback from 5,400 to 4,365 meets the rule of buying early on every 20% drop, and investment bars have vanished or sold out on the apps of major Chinese state banks, possibly from heavy dip-buying. x.comÂ
Gold-making machines are real, undermining gold's scarcity. Gold goes to zero; unlike Bitcoin, whose supply is fixed at 21 million, new gold can be made. x.comÂ
China's physical buying near $4,000 and a Fed lagging inflation support gold despite rising rates. Per Bloomberg, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract traded roughly 430 tons last week, its busiest week since April; buyers pay in full and take delivery. Gold historically does very well when rates rise while the Fed is behind the curve, as it is now. Warsh is no Volcker, and heavy US debt would constrain him even if he were. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold bottoms before other assets because gold investors anticipate another bailout and inevitable money printing, as in 2008. x.comÂ
Gold depends on finding a greater fool to buy it, which is increasingly problematic because bitcoin is a perfectly scarce version of gold that is portable over the internet. x.comÂ
Gold is a better home for retirement savings now because bad assets get dumped into pension funds and savers can be left with nothing. x.comÂ