Gold bottoms before other assets because gold investors anticipate another bailout and inevitable money printing, as in 2008. x.comÂ
SwingTrader
Stock & Bond Market Commentary
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold, along with long rates, is a premier trade because this moment closely rhymes with 2008. Then, after an ugly January, a 75bp Fed cut and Bear Stearns' collapse in March, stocks got within 10% of their high, oil hit a record, rate expectations rose, and the Fed weighed hiking in August while the ECB under Trichet actually raised rates. The Fed is again contemplating a hike, and that analog points to bonds and gold. x.comÂ
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
Central-bank stockpiling adds demand for gold amid market weakness. WatcherGuru, citing Fortune, reports central banks buying four times more gold than usual and moving it out of the US. Similar silver buying is suspected, not established; both metals remain favored. x.comÂ
Gold's dip on rate-driven opportunity costs is a buying opportunity, because higher rates force faster money-supply growth. The system is designed that way, since letting defaults ripple through it is politically unfeasible, and that pressure will intensify until the great monetary reset. x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is a better home for retirement savings now because bad assets get dumped into pension funds and savers can be left with nothing. x.comÂ