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Heisenberg
Stock Chartist, Long/Short Ideas
Gold is weakening because interest rates are too high, near 20-year highs. It has retraced almost all of its 20% July-August bounce, is close to a fresh 1.5-year low against the S&P 500, sits at a two-month low and is down for the year, trailing Bitcoin. A 3.93% drop was its fifth-worst day of the year. Giving back gains this fast and making multi-month lows is a bad technical sign, though a triple bottom could still form. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Gold now points toward a downside target, following the late-August exit signal laid out in the August 30 edition of Turning Points. x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
Seasonality is unfavorable for gold over the next few weeks, adding to the intermediate downside case. Based on 30-50 years of data, this is not one of the preferred 70% zones and seasonality is only a confluence, never a standalone signal. Losing the $3,955 low opens a normal backtest toward $3,450; gold tends to bottom in mid-November and mid-March. A pullback to the $3,000 area, if it occurs, would be a long-term buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
Gold is hard to hold at a 0% yield while interest rates keep rising. @Mr_Derivatives notes gold's 3.93% drop at the close was the fifth-worst drawdown of the year, driven by rates. x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Gold's leading scenario is a retest of its June low in Q4 after it closed below its 50-day moving average. A break below 4,235, the last short-term low, would confirm that path, and only a rally above 4,510, the last short-term high, would invalidate it. A stronger dollar and rising interest rates are both weighing on gold. x.com x.com x.comÂ