Namzes Cycles
Hurst Cycle & Technical Analyst, Commodities/Crypto/Equity Indices, Risk Management Background
Seasonality is unfavorable for gold over the next few weeks, adding to the intermediate downside case. Based on 30-50 years of data, this is not one of the preferred 70% zones and seasonality is only a confluence, never a standalone signal. Losing the $3,955 low opens a normal backtest toward $3,450; gold tends to bottom in mid-November and mid-March. A pullback to the $3,000 area, if it occurs, would be a long-term buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
Gold's leading scenario is a retest of its June low in Q4 after it closed below its 50-day moving average. A break below 4,235, the last short-term low, would confirm that path, and only a rally above 4,510, the last short-term high, would invalidate it. A stronger dollar and rising interest rates are both weighing on gold. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold now points toward a downside target, following the late-August exit signal laid out in the August 30 edition of Turning Points. x.comÂ
Gold has finished building a base and its trend remains strong, with a next target of $4,500. It has reclaimed its key moving averages and broken back above an important level, and heavy put selling in options shows solid support below. August to early September is usually a seasonally strong stretch. A break above $4,500 would open $5,000; failing that, gold would likely pull back to its 21-day EMA and consolidate. x.com x.comÂ
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more
Gold's drop is a correction inside a bull market caused by rising real yields, and a dip below 4,000 is a buy into year-end only if real yields are the cause. Spot gold fell 2.87% to 4,155 as 10-year TIPS rose to 2.89%, yet it is still up 11.8% over a year. The bull structure holds above 4,000; a close below it with 10-year TIPS above 3% opens 3,900. Managed-money net length fell for a third week to 127,389 contracts. Wednesday's PCE is the next checkpoint. x.com x.comÂ
Gold has topped because the business cycle has entered expansion, the phase when gold tops and bitcoin takes over. Gold runs hardest during contractions as a risk-off asset; in past cycles it topped within a week of the turn to expansion, after which bitcoin ran for 420 to 470 days. The rotation into bitcoin has already begun, so the calls near $5,000 for a ten-year gold run were wrong. x.comÂ
