Art of Speculation
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Gold has finished building a base and its trend remains strong, with a next target of $4,500. It has reclaimed its key moving averages and broken back above an important level, and heavy put selling in options shows solid support below. August to early September is usually a seasonally strong stretch. A break above $4,500 would open $5,000; failing that, gold would likely pull back to its 21-day EMA and consolidate. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is trying to build a larger base as options flows turn heavily bullish. Gamma positioning in gold is turning positive again, and the options market shows clear net inflows, with call buying, put selling and single trades over $30M targeting the 400 and even 500 strikes. Breaking and holding the 370-375 resistance zone would open a run at 400. A falling dollar and rallying bonds are positive for gold, making it worth watching independently of stocks. x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Seasonality is unfavorable for gold over the next few weeks, adding to the intermediate downside case. Based on 30-50 years of data, this is not one of the preferred 70% zones and seasonality is only a confluence, never a standalone signal. Losing the $3,955 low opens a normal backtest toward $3,450; gold tends to bottom in mid-November and mid-March. A pullback to the $3,000 area, if it occurs, would be a long-term buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Institutions are clearly building a position in gold around $430 in the gold ETF. It just posted its largest buy volume since the March low, about $27B, and is pulling back to the area it was earlier sold from inefficiently, while intraday buyers keep absorbing the drop. Gold is now green on the year and holding its October 2025 range. x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Gold demand may be shifting toward ETFs, which could bring a new wave of buying. Central banks bought 130 tonnes year to date, 19% less than last year's 160, yet gold is still near record highs. China added 20 tonnes in July and Poland 8, while Korea bought $250M of a gold ETF instead of physical gold. Slower central-bank buying alongside strong prices could be a bullish signal. x.comÂ
China's physical buying near $4,000 and a Fed lagging inflation support gold despite rising rates. Per Bloomberg, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract traded roughly 430 tons last week, its busiest week since April; buyers pay in full and take delivery. Gold historically does very well when rates rise while the Fed is behind the curve, as it is now. Warsh is no Volcker, and heavy US debt would constrain him even if he were. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Gold's drop is a correction inside a bull market caused by rising real yields, and a dip below 4,000 is a buy into year-end only if real yields are the cause. Spot gold fell 2.87% to 4,155 as 10-year TIPS rose to 2.89%, yet it is still up 11.8% over a year. The bull structure holds above 4,000; a close below it with 10-year TIPS above 3% opens 3,900. Managed-money net length fell for a third week to 127,389 contracts. Wednesday's PCE is the next checkpoint. x.com x.comÂ
