Master of Crypto
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Gold demand may be shifting toward ETFs, which could bring a new wave of buying. Central banks bought 130 tonnes year to date, 19% less than last year's 160, yet gold is still near record highs. China added 20 tonnes in July and Poland 8, while Korea bought $250M of a gold ETF instead of physical gold. Slower central-bank buying alongside strong prices could be a bullish signal. x.comÂ
Central-bank stockpiling adds demand for gold amid market weakness. WatcherGuru, citing Fortune, reports central banks buying four times more gold than usual and moving it out of the US. Similar silver buying is suspected, not established; both metals remain favored. x.comÂ
Institutions are clearly building a position in gold around $430 in the gold ETF. It just posted its largest buy volume since the March low, about $27B, and is pulling back to the area it was earlier sold from inefficiently, while intraday buyers keep absorbing the drop. Gold is now green on the year and holding its October 2025 range. x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Record central-bank buying supports gold. Gold now accounts for over 20% of central-bank reserves, near a multidecade high; notice the trend and adjust accordingly. x.comÂ
Central-bank gold accumulation may be an early warning of inflation, adding to gold's reserve-demand case. Gold's share of non-US central-bank reserves has risen to 24%; the last comparable surge preceded double-digit inflation. Inflation is nowhere near that level today, but central banks buying about 1,000 tonnes a year suggest they do not consider it settled and see debt rising. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
China's physical buying near $4,000 and a Fed lagging inflation support gold despite rising rates. Per Bloomberg, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract traded roughly 430 tons last week, its busiest week since April; buyers pay in full and take delivery. Gold historically does very well when rates rise while the Fed is behind the curve, as it is now. Warsh is no Volcker, and heavy US debt would constrain him even if he were. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold now points toward a downside target, following the late-August exit signal laid out in the August 30 edition of Turning Points. x.comÂ
Gold has years of central-bank demand ahead because China is still far behind in gold reserves. China's reserves are just 9% gold versus 69% for the US. Per the Sound Money Report, China's central bank added 20 tonnes in July, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and its 21st straight month of buying, right through gold's worst quarterly slide in over a decade; that is balance-sheet strategy, not dip-buying. x.comÂ
