AllllSevens
Stock-Market Research, Institutional Trading & Market Inefficiencies
Institutions are clearly building a position in gold around $430 in the gold ETF. It just posted its largest buy volume since the March low, about $27B, and is pulling back to the area it was earlier sold from inefficiently, while intraday buyers keep absorbing the drop. Gold is now green on the year and holding its October 2025 range. x.comÂ
Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.comÂ
Central-bank stockpiling adds demand for gold amid market weakness. WatcherGuru, citing Fortune, reports central banks buying four times more gold than usual and moving it out of the US. Similar silver buying is suspected, not established; both metals remain favored. x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
China's physical buying near $4,000 and a Fed lagging inflation support gold despite rising rates. Per Bloomberg, the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract traded roughly 430 tons last week, its busiest week since April; buyers pay in full and take delivery. Gold historically does very well when rates rise while the Fed is behind the curve, as it is now. Warsh is no Volcker, and heavy US debt would constrain him even if he were. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold demand may be shifting toward ETFs, which could bring a new wave of buying. Central banks bought 130 tonnes year to date, 19% less than last year's 160, yet gold is still near record highs. China added 20 tonnes in July and Poland 8, while Korea bought $250M of a gold ETF instead of physical gold. Slower central-bank buying alongside strong prices could be a bullish signal. x.comÂ
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Gold has years of central-bank demand ahead because China is still far behind in gold reserves. China's reserves are just 9% gold versus 69% for the US. Per the Sound Money Report, China's central bank added 20 tonnes in July, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023 and its 21st straight month of buying, right through gold's worst quarterly slide in over a decade; that is balance-sheet strategy, not dip-buying. x.comÂ
Gold has finished building a base and its trend remains strong, with a next target of $4,500. It has reclaimed its key moving averages and broken back above an important level, and heavy put selling in options shows solid support below. August to early September is usually a seasonally strong stretch. A break above $4,500 would open $5,000; failing that, gold would likely pull back to its 21-day EMA and consolidate. x.com x.comÂ
Gold now points toward a downside target, following the late-August exit signal laid out in the August 30 edition of Turning Points. x.comÂ
Gold remains bullish because its correction and investor washout fit the expected cycle reset before the next major move. After two strong years, the projected cycle low is approaching, making the shakeout a setup within gold's multi-year cycle rather than a break in the long-term trend. x.com x.comÂ
