Zenolytics
Founder of Zenolytics, Portfolio Manager at T11 Capital
Gold's failure to rise even after rates pulled back decently challenges the earlier high-rate explanation for its weakness. GLD is close to fresh 11-month lows and just closed at a new 14-month low relative to the S&P 500. Gold has trended down since its parabolic January peak. x.com x.comÂ
Gold faces continued selling pressure as GLD records its biggest weekly outflow since March. November seasonality often favors gold, but gold is still not bullish beyond a bounce. x.com x.comÂ
Gold is set to take off as energy-driven stagflation traps the Fed and negative real rates favor it. Today's dovish hold was likely its last chance to hike: once the AI bubble bursts, the Fed loses that option, while current debt-to-GDP rules out Volcker-style hikes without fiscal insolvency. Per Macrotrends' chart, gold rose eightfold from its 1976 low to its 1980 high, equivalent to $32,000 gold over five years in today's terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Seasonality is unfavorable for gold over the next few weeks, adding to the intermediate downside case. Based on 30-50 years of data, this is not one of the preferred 70% zones and seasonality is only a confluence, never a standalone signal. Losing the $3,955 low opens a normal backtest toward $3,450; gold tends to bottom in mid-November and mid-March. A pullback to the $3,000 area, if it occurs, would be a long-term buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold is not immune to the liquidity drain hitting markets, and it is breaking below its 200-day moving average for the first time since 2023. Other commodities are not looking hot either. Fiat currencies eventually end up in the toilet and commodities scream higher, but the path there can be bumpy. x.comÂ
Gold is set for a brutal reversal higher, because it is down almost 30% from its all-time high and everyone is positioned for more downside, exactly when such reversals begin. x.comÂ
Gold tends to perform poorly when liquidity contracts, while it performs best during recoveries. Gold looks likely to fall next year. x.com x.comÂ
Gold's leading scenario is a retest of its June low in Q4 after it closed below its 50-day moving average. A break below 4,235, the last short-term low, would confirm that path, and only a rally above 4,510, the last short-term high, would invalidate it. A stronger dollar and rising interest rates are both weighing on gold. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Gold has finished building a base and its trend remains strong, with a next target of $4,500. It has reclaimed its key moving averages and broken back above an important level, and heavy put selling in options shows solid support below. August to early September is usually a seasonally strong stretch. A break above $4,500 would open $5,000; failing that, gold would likely pull back to its 21-day EMA and consolidate. x.com x.comÂ
Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more