Samsung Electronics and SK hynix can invest heavily and still generate free cash flow that makes memory stocks look strikingly cheap. In 2027, they will spend $150B combined on capex yet generate $500-600B of free cash flow, against just $1.8T of combined enterprise value, or less than 3.5x 2027 FCF. Long memory. x.com 

SK hynix's earnings and buybacks could drive a tripling by 2027 before a re-rating, on Jonah Lupton's assumptions. Its Q3 report expects memory demand to outpace supply through 2030 as advanced processes and fab lead times constrain growth. It plans about KRW 100 trillion in FY2026 shareholder returns, including KRW 60 trillion or more in share acquisitions or cancellations; the buybacks would first reduce shares outstanding. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Memory makers' long-term agreements cannot protect pricing when buyers regain leverage. The market underestimates downside even before a price collapse; SK hynix's agreements price within market-linked ranges, per @jukan05. The agreements will be ripped apart when the market turns to buyers, at the latest when China ramps. SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, SanDisk and Kioxia are exposed. x.com 

More memory CapEx may yield proportionally fewer bits as HBM consumes more wafer capacity, supporting SK hynix and Samsung's pricing. Both reported double-digit quarterly DRAM and NAND price gains; Samsung targets 60-70% of mid- to long-term capacity under LTAs. SK hynix has the stronger execution record, but Samsung could benefit enormously from conventional memory without winning HBM4. If trends persist, normalized margins could rise, though memory remains cyclical. x.com 

SK hynix should reprice strongly because its blowout earnings make the case that memory is structurally different now. At the current earnings pace, it would earn back its entire market cap in two years; buybacks and dividends also return cash to shareholders and add to value. x.com 

SK hynix's plan for more shareholder returns looks like the beginning of the end for the company. In a historically cyclical industry, giving money away instead of investing to avoid that cyclicality signals it can't find anywhere else to put its incoming cash. SK hynix said it is considering additional shareholder return measures, with details due in the third quarter. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SK hynix's strong pricing and secured capacity could push memory stocks higher. Per Wall St Engine, its Q3 DRAM ASP rose by a high-20s percentage quarter over quarter, while long-term agreements cover more than half of its 2027-28 capacity. Those figures support the memory upcycle. x.com 

SK hynix has unusually strong earnings visibility because it expects memory demand to exceed supply through 2030, while long-term agreements with 14 customers cover more than half of its 2027 and 2028 production capacity. Record Q3 operating profit of KRW 83.3T also beat the KRW 76.7T estimate. x.com  x.com 

Samsung's record quarter looks closer to a peak than a new base: conventional DRAM shipments are flat year on year, while higher prices per bit drove profits despite a revenue miss. Its phone unit is cutting output because memory costs too much, and AI chip designers are seeking to use less HBM. Buyers' response threatens the price-led margin surge. The October 29 divisional earnings breakdown may show whether memory profit grew much faster than group profit. x.com 

SK hynix's enforceable long-term supply commitments add visibility to memory profits. It says DRAM and HBM volumes through 2029 are effectively sold out, with agreements covering over half of 2027-28 capacity while retaining pricing flexibility. Operating profit beat expectations at $62.8B versus about $58B, and SK hynix announced $75B in 2026 shareholder returns. It expects the memory shortage to persist through 2030. x.com