Qualcomm is hurt by plunging consumer smartphone sales. Counterpoint Research's preliminary estimate puts global Q3 2026 shipments down 20% year over year, the lowest Q3 since 2012. Apple outperformed Android but was still down. x.com  x.com 

Qualcomm has a terrible position in every market it competes in and is not cheap enough to compensate. It faces Nvidia in cars, Intel and AMD in data-center CPUs, and Samsung and Google on their own phones. China is a material share of revenue, and Apple is aggressively cutting out Qualcomm's modem, a long-term revenue headwind. @citrini, bullish since December, made a good call, but the short stands; it also works as a funding short against long compute names such as AMD, SanDisk and Lumentum. … Show more

Qualcomm's investor day strengthened the long case, as its CFO raised FY2029 non-handset revenue guidance 91% to $40B. Qualcomm disclosed major orders from two hyperscalers, said its Dragonfly C1000 data-center CPU launches in mid-2028 with Meta among the first customers, introduced the AI300 accelerator and data-center interconnect, and expects $6B of annualized automotive revenue in FY2026. It also agreed to buy AI software firm Modular for $3.9B. x.com 

Qualcomm is weak in its own capabilities while facing longer phone replacement cycles and pricier memory. Its other growth narratives are a very long way off. x.com 

Apple dropping Qualcomm in favor of its own chips is a warning sign for Qualcomm. When Apple dumped Intel's chips, it marked five years of pain for Intel. Around $150 would be the right level to step in. x.com 

Qualcomm's datacenter push would still cover its lost Apple revenue even if it missed its targets by half. At its 2026 IR day, management called datacenter its biggest opportunity ever, targeting $5B of revenue in FY27 with capacity and memory secured and $15B+ by FY29, and raised FY29 non-handset revenue to $40B from $22B. After endless bear cases, from Apple to Samsung and China competition, anything is upside. Hiccups are likely, as no organic datacenter product has customers yet. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Sandisk's datacenter shipments and restrained bit-supply plan strengthen its growth case, without settling contract protection in a downturn. Management attributed roughly 60% of fiscal Q1 revenue growth to volume and 40% to price; datacenter sales rose 61% sequentially to $4.8B, supplying 88% of total growth. It retains mid-to-high-teens bit growth rather than accelerating supply. Consumer sales fell 29%, and the CFO cautioned against carrying Q2's growth rate into fiscal Q3. x.com  x.com 

Rising mobile DRAM prices are the biggest risk for Apple and Qualcomm and could make their consumer businesses unsustainable. TrendForce forecasts Q2 2026 contract prices for LPDDR4X up at least 70-75% and LPDDR5X up 78-83% quarter on quarter, putting smartphone brands under heavier cost pressure and forcing spec cuts: high-end models settling at 12GB of RAM, mid-range back to 8GB and low-end converging on 4GB. x.com 

Qualcomm is still priced as a phone company even as diversification absorbs the loss of Apple modem revenue. Non-handset revenue is now about 34% of QCT; automotive revenue grew 38% to $1.3 billion, with 50% growth guided for Q3 and an exit above $6 billion for FY2026. Snapdragon X2 Elite gives it edge-AI leadership, with over 100 Copilot+ PC designs. Q2 FY2026 beat on revenue of $10.6 billion and EPS of $2.65. The Apple overhang of about $6-8 billion is priced in and nearly over. x.com 

Qualcomm's huge mobile exposure is a reason to be wary of the stock even if it looks cheap. Its server CPU effort is promising, but how much share it can take from incumbents remains to be seen. x.com