US sovereign AI and defense demand for domestically made compute will bring Intel most, if not all, US semiconductor designers as customers. PC weakness also lets Intel shift wafers to higher-margin server CPUs, but that takes a few quarters; capacity to ship more server CPUs is the limiter. The $240 billion 2030 server CPU market forecast is a stretch case, not the base case, versus roughly $200 billion consensus. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Qualcomm stays a Hold, with the target cut to $186 on handset weakness and limited near-to-mid-term data-center visibility. Fiscal Q4 2026 revenue guidance of $9.7-10.5B fell short of buy-side chatter near $11B; Android faces elevated wafer inventories and Apple modem revenue is falling faster than expected. Data-center targets of $5B in FY27 and $15B+ in FY29 were reaffirmed and AI250 has four major US cloud customers, but high LPDDR5 prices hurt its competitiveness, and CPUs are years off. … Show more

Qualcomm's datacenter push would still cover its lost Apple revenue even if it missed its targets by half. At its 2026 IR day, management called datacenter its biggest opportunity ever, targeting $5B of revenue in FY27 with capacity and memory secured and $15B+ by FY29, and raised FY29 non-handset revenue to $40B from $22B. After endless bear cases, from Apple to Samsung and China competition, anything is upside. Hiccups are likely, as no organic datacenter product has customers yet. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Qualcomm is weak in its own capabilities while facing longer phone replacement cycles and pricier memory. Its other growth narratives are a very long way off. x.com 

Qualcomm has a terrible position in every market it competes in and is not cheap enough to compensate. It faces Nvidia in cars, Intel and AMD in data-center CPUs, and Samsung and Google on their own phones. China is a material share of revenue, and Apple is aggressively cutting out Qualcomm's modem, a long-term revenue headwind. @citrini, bullish since December, made a good call, but the short stands; it also works as a funding short against long compute names such as AMD, SanDisk and Lumentum. … Show more

Anduril's BlueChip partnership is huge for Qualcomm because it extends its role from radio chips to secure US military and government laptops. BlueChip uses Snapdragon X; preorders are planned for 2027, and some supplier agreements remain unfinished. x.com  x.com 

Qualcomm is hurt by plunging consumer smartphone sales. Counterpoint Research's preliminary estimate puts global Q3 2026 shipments down 20% year over year, the lowest Q3 since 2012. Apple outperformed Android but was still down. x.com  x.com 

Intel looks priced for too much good news before it has actually delivered on anything. Its CPU story was carrying the share price. x.com 

Qualcomm is still priced as a legacy modem stock while it builds a serious AI data center business. At 16x forward earnings it trades far below Broadcom, AMD and Nvidia. Per FundaAI research, it could ship about 1 million custom AI ASICs to a Chinese cloud provider by end-2026 at around $4,000 each, roughly $4 billion from one customer, with about 3 million server CPUs from 2027 and two US cloud providers in the pipeline; those figures remain estimates. x.com 

Apple dropping Qualcomm in favor of its own chips is a warning sign for Qualcomm. When Apple dumped Intel's chips, it marked five years of pain for Intel. Around $150 would be the right level to step in. x.com