CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
Keel Infrastructure has a realistic path to 10x by leasing the 2.2GW of grid-connected power it already controls. At $150-200 per kW per month, the three leases the CEO targets this year, Panther Creek (350MW), Sharon (110MW) and Moses Lake (18MW), imply $850M-$1.1B of annual revenue. The full pipeline would exceed $4B, and at 6-7x sales for operators with hyperscaler contracts, a conservative multiple implies about $30B. Each signed lease re-rates the rest. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure could rerate instantly if one of its three targeted leases lands with a hyperscaler, since the first signed lease would validate its whole 2.2 GW pipeline. It has about 478 MW of near-term secured capacity: 350 MW at Panther Creek, 110 MW at Sharon and 18 MW at Moses Lake, the fastest to deploy and first proof of execution. Speculation links Amazon to Moses Lake after an AWS job post, which is unconfirmed. About $533 million in cash and bitcoin funds the sites through 2028. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure has multibagger potential because a single signed hyperscaler lease would reprice the whole company. Formerly Bitfarms, it is converting entirely to AI data centers, with a 2.2GW power pipeline that includes up to 1.3GW at its Pennsylvania site. Management is targeting three hyperscaler leases by year end. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure trades at a large discount to peers mainly because it lacks a hyperscaler deal, and a single contract could close that gap. It has grid connections in place, a 2.2 GW pipeline and a market cap near $3.8B. Sites are Panther Creek, PA at 350 MW with a path to 500+ MW long term; Sharon, PA at 110 MW; and an 18 MW Moses Lake, WA pilot. CEO Ben Gagnon committed to sign three leases by year-end, and the stock should join the Russell 3000 in June. Leopold added to his position. … Show more
Keel Infrastructure's rental earnings may leave little cash for expansion or distributions after debt service and other obligations. In the September 11 Base forecast for 2030, $996.8M of cash operating EBITDA leaves $288.2M before further development, chiefly after $451M of interest plus taxes, maintenance, principal and working capital, partly offset by treasury income. A separate $616.4M development bill means that remainder is not an available dividend. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure is re-rating as an AI infrastructure supplier, backed by scarce grid interconnections and a 2.2 GW power and data-center pipeline across Pennsylvania, Washington and Quebec. Its move to a US headquarters and Delaware incorporation sheds the crypto-miner label and could draw US index and institutional money. The CEO and COO keep buying shares with no insider selling, and the put/call ratio fell from a typical 0.24 to 0.13 in September as traders bet on calls. x.comÂ
KEEL Infrastructure looks close to landing a tenant for its 18MW Moses Lake site, which could be worth about $0.50 per share. KEEL has secured backup power from Southern Co subsidiary PowerSecure, Vertiv modules are arriving, fiber contracts are being finalized, and the company cites customers' stringent availability requirements. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure has no signed hyperscaler lease, so it must fund its pre-lease buildout with expensive convertibles and ATM equity, and every dilutive dollar raised before a lease comes out of the bulls' 10x target. Cost of capital is the whole game, and the cheapest capital, debt against an investment-grade lease, only unlocks once a lease is signed. @CKCapitalxx's 10x math assumes $150-200 per kW per month, but DGXX's $190 rate only works for turnkey builds, not leasing a powered shell. … Show more
Keel Infrastructure can run fast to 10+, its all-time high, once it clears 6.6, backed by a recent multi-billion-dollar deal to scale data centers. The weekly chart shows a curl with a high-volume push into recent highs. x.comÂ
TeraWulf's completed data centers could make later campuses easier to fund if delivery experience improves costs, contingencies or financing terms. Leases precede rent, so tenant acceptance, cash-rent dates and final costs must be checked against budgets. Cash available after lender obligations and owner capital per megawatt on the next campus will show whether shareholders gain more than another site; major tenant wins alone do not prove that improvement. x.comÂ
Keel Infrastructure keeps offering reasons for having no lease deals, and its story of waiting to make more money later looks weak and potentially dishonest. Keel's CEO has said since early 2025 that it would sign leases closer to power deployment to avoid long-lead discounts, but there are plenty of deals to ink now, and CoreWeave and Nebius have take-or-pay contracts lined up for years. Keel can still sign deals, and maybe it will, but CoreWeave offers the visibility it lacks. x.com x.com … Show more
Some AI data-center developers may have to absorb higher financing costs because existing leases have fixed economics and tenants need not pay more. That could reduce equity returns even as compute demand grows. Scarce deliverable power, strong counterparties and favorable financing could instead make the best developers more valuable as marginal projects stall. Vertically integrated infrastructure landowners such as Cipher look attractive; today's prices may be the worst of the selloff. x.com … Show more
