Tae Kim
AI/Semiconductor Journalist, Author of Key Context
The iPhone Duo's very bad experience could cause enthusiasm to all but disappear after the first wave of Apple early adopters. It feels half baked, and the initially neat opening animation has lost its appeal. Reviews have been bad or mixed enough that Apple might not trade like an inverse ETF today. x.com x.comÂ
Apple's ecosystem lock-in and virtually nonexistent groundbreaking innovation since AirPods make it one of the slimiest companies in the stock market and a stock to never own. It has admitted throttling older iPhones, charges developers 30% in the App Store, limits interoperability to keep users locked in, and earns billions in Services revenue from customers who struggle to leave. Its model extracts as much as possible from captured users. x.com x.comÂ
Apple is a sell here because buybacks are replacing innovation while its share price is dangerously extended. It is not spending on AI, in cloud services, making robots or pursuing global WiFi; its VR, Siri chatbot and iCar efforts have failed. Its flip phone follows Samsung's, and AirPods have poor battery life and microphones. The share price has held up, but only for now. x.comÂ
Strong iPhone Duo launch demand supports always owning Apple shares. Launch stock sold out in minutes (often reported as about 30 minutes or less), and estimated delivery for new online orders shifted from the October 23 launch to around January 25, 2027. x.comÂ
Memory-cost pressure, weak volumes and weak services should make Apple's quarter bad, giving the short a chance to work on this quarter alone. Other hardware companies this quarter also point to weakness, though Apple has been a terrible short so far. x.com x.comÂ
Apple's growth valuation gives too much credit to a $2,000 folding iPhone and a touchscreen MacBook. Its 36.16 forward P/E and 3.54 PEG are higher than recent readings over the past two years, making this a point to take serious profits. x.comÂ
Apple's new hardware cycle has an encouraging early demand signal: Duo preorders look strong out of the gates. Duo is Cupertino's first new form factor since AirPods in 2016, and new hardware innovation will define the Ternus era. x.comÂ
Apple's roughly 40 times trailing and 37 times forward earnings make the shares too expensive ahead of next week's results. A short looks reasonable, though a sell-the-news reaction after earnings remains uncertain. x.com x.comÂ
Apple's iPhone cycle looks soft, keeping the rating at Hold. iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max pre-order wait times look lukewarm, with many configurations shipping immediately, amid limited upgrades, higher pricing especially for high storage, competition from the iPhone Duo and weight criticism. The Pro and Pro Max build plan is cut to 72 million units on adjustable-aperture camera constraints. Early Duo feedback is positive, but its 2026 build plan is cut from 7 million to 6 million on hinge issues. … Show more
Apple's new iPhone Duo will be a hit, setting the stock up for a move. x.comÂ
Apple's roughly 35x forward earnings premium looks unsustainable. If fear around the AI trade fades, its gains could stall or reverse. x.com x.comÂ
