Paradis
AI & Technology Investment Research
Supermicro's Q3 results confirmed the predicted margin recovery from its growing DCBBS business, backing the re-rating case. Revenue rose 123% year on year to $10.2 billion, EPS of $0.84 beat the $0.62 estimate, and net income jumped 344% to $483 million. Q4 guidance was raised to $11-12.5 billion of revenue versus a $11.3 billion estimate, with management citing margin recovery, rapid DCBBS growth and massive AI demand. x.com
Super Micro Computer faces governance risk as Taiwan's chip-smuggling probe reaches it. Per the Kobeissi Letter, the stock fell more than 9% after its Taiwan office was raided. The raid is unsurprising given that its CEO smuggled Nvidia products to China. x.com
Super Micro Computer's CEO reeks of questionable character, and Taiwan's raid on its offices in an expanding chip-export probe adds to the concern. The open questions are how severe any fraud is and whether it is already priced in. x.com
Super Micro is a buy on fundamentals, though the near term will be a disaster. It needs time to stabilize under better management, so any buying should be scaled in slowly. x.com
Super Micro Computer is a stock to avoid, as its latest news about China obtaining its servers shows. That news likely doesn't even include other channels through which China received Supermicro hardware via shell companies in Asia. x.com x.com
Super Micro Computer is a fraud risk that hasn't changed: per Bloomberg, relayed by @StockMKTNewz, its offices were raided as Taiwan expanded a chip-smuggling probe. Arm or other semiconductor names are the better holdings. x.com
Super Micro Computer's nearly 40% drop over the past month is a market overreaction, since the allegations targeted a director, not the company, and found no company wrongdoing. Some of the pressure may have been competitor-driven or politically amplified. What matters is engineering strength: it builds roughly all of xAI's servers, is involved early in Terafab, and is often the first partner AI-chip startups such as d-Matrix turn to. It remains a long-term hold. x.com
Super Micro Computer is hard to invest in despite its absurd guidance, because what management did leaves zero trust in it. x.com
Super Micro Computer has been rotten from the beginning, a stock to avoid when so many peers are available. Per @StockMKTNewz, citing CNBC, US prosecutors have charged a Super Micro co-founder, employee and contractor with smuggling Nvidia chips to China, yet the stock is only down about 3%. x.com x.com
Increased AI-platform demand is lifting Super Micro Computer's preliminary revenue above guidance. Supermicro estimates fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guided, and gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guided, primarily due to customer and product mix. No one is bullish enough on the stock; $50+ by year-end is in view. x.com x.com x.com
Super Micro Computer's smuggling scandal is a black eye that will take a long time to heal and likely leave a permanent scar, making it a no-touch stock. Per @ns123abc, co-founder Wally Liaw was arrested and charged with smuggling $2.5B of Nvidia servers to China through a Southeast Asian shell company. With a founder and several employees arrested, vendors may move to Dell. x.com x.com x.com