Super Micro Computer is a company to avoid on fraud concerns after its co-founder was arrested in an alleged $2.5 billion Nvidia chip smuggling scheme, per Zerohedge. x.com 

Super Micro Computer looks like a fraud, and the earlier alarm raised on it is being borne out. x.com 

Super Micro should benefit as data centers buy the servers that house Nvidia's AI chips. Its quarterly sales outlook rose from $15B to $19B; the stock is 36% below its high and trades at 8x next year's earnings. It is a double from here. x.com  x.com 

Super Micro Computer is a stock to avoid, as its latest news about China obtaining its servers shows. That news likely doesn't even include other channels through which China received Supermicro hardware via shell companies in Asia. x.com  x.com 

Supermicro carries too much drama to hold long term: its offices were raided as part of Taiwan's chip-smuggling probe. The earlier long was only a short-term trade front-running earnings. x.com  x.com 

Increased AI-platform demand is lifting Super Micro Computer's preliminary revenue above guidance. Supermicro estimates fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guided, and gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guided, primarily due to customer and product mix. No one is bullish enough on the stock; $50+ by year-end is in view. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Super Micro Computer faces governance risk as Taiwan's chip-smuggling probe reaches it. Per the Kobeissi Letter, the stock fell more than 9% after its Taiwan office was raided. The raid is unsurprising given that its CEO smuggled Nvidia products to China. x.com 

Super Micro Computer's CEO reeks of questionable character, and Taiwan's raid on its offices in an expanding chip-export probe adds to the concern. The open questions are how severe any fraud is and whether it is already priced in. x.com 

Super Micro's heavy capital spending should pay off, making it worth buying now. x.com 

Super Micro Computer is not worth the risk regardless of its business or multiple, given early signs of sketchy business that have now escalated. Per @WOLF_Financial, its co-founder was charged with smuggling about $2.5B of servers with Nvidia AI chips to China via a Southeast Asian shell company, using fake paperwork and dummy servers to fool the compliance team. x.com