Super Micro Computer is a company to avoid on fraud concerns after its co-founder was arrested in an alleged $2.5 billion Nvidia chip smuggling scheme, per Zerohedge. x.com 

Super Micro Computer is not worth the risk regardless of its business or multiple, given early signs of sketchy business that have now escalated. Per @WOLF_Financial, its co-founder was charged with smuggling about $2.5B of servers with Nvidia AI chips to China via a Southeast Asian shell company, using fake paperwork and dummy servers to fool the compliance team. x.com 

Super Micro should benefit as data centers buy the servers that house Nvidia's AI chips. Its quarterly sales outlook rose from $15B to $19B; the stock is 36% below its high and trades at 8x next year's earnings. It is a double from here. x.com  x.com 

Super Micro Computer has been rotten from the beginning, a stock to avoid when so many peers are available. Per @StockMKTNewz, citing CNBC, US prosecutors have charged a Super Micro co-founder, employee and contractor with smuggling Nvidia chips to China, yet the stock is only down about 3%. x.com  x.com 

Super Micro Computer is an AI hardware company with a history of fraud and is likely committing some kind of fraud now, so a surprise guide of 15-17% Q4 gross margins versus 8% previously does not make it a credible long. x.com 

Super Micro Computer's nearly 40% drop over the past month is a market overreaction, since the allegations targeted a director, not the company, and found no company wrongdoing. Some of the pressure may have been competitor-driven or politically amplified. What matters is engineering strength: it builds roughly all of xAI's servers, is involved early in Terafab, and is often the first partner AI-chip startups such as d-Matrix turn to. It remains a long-term hold. x.com 

Super Micro Computer should come off the watchlist because its administrative team has a criminal history. x.com 

Super Micro Computer's smuggling scandal is a black eye that will take a long time to heal and likely leave a permanent scar, making it a no-touch stock. Per @ns123abc, co-founder Wally Liaw was arrested and charged with smuggling $2.5B of Nvidia servers to China through a Southeast Asian shell company. With a founder and several employees arrested, vendors may move to Dell. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Increased AI-platform demand is lifting Super Micro Computer's preliminary revenue above guidance. Supermicro estimates fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guided, and gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guided, primarily due to customer and product mix. No one is bullish enough on the stock; $50+ by year-end is in view. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Super Micro Computer's CEO reeks of questionable character, and Taiwan's raid on its offices in an expanding chip-export probe adds to the concern. The open questions are how severe any fraud is and whether it is already priced in. x.com