Super Micro Computer looks like a fraud, and the earlier alarm raised on it is being borne out. x.com 

Super Micro Computer is an AI hardware company with a history of fraud and is likely committing some kind of fraud now, so a surprise guide of 15-17% Q4 gross margins versus 8% previously does not make it a credible long. x.com 

Super Micro is a buy on fundamentals, though the near term will be a disaster. It needs time to stabilize under better management, so any buying should be scaled in slowly. x.com 

Super Micro Computer is not worth the risk regardless of its business or multiple, given early signs of sketchy business that have now escalated. Per @WOLF_Financial, its co-founder was charged with smuggling about $2.5B of servers with Nvidia AI chips to China via a Southeast Asian shell company, using fake paperwork and dummy servers to fool the compliance team. x.com 

Super Micro Computer faces governance risk as Taiwan's chip-smuggling probe reaches it. Per the Kobeissi Letter, the stock fell more than 9% after its Taiwan office was raided. The raid is unsurprising given that its CEO smuggled Nvidia products to China. x.com 

Super Micro Computer is getting too cheap to ignore even if its earnings are questionable; its management is the main reason the stock is weak. Without them the shares would likely already be much higher, and @NebbioloNerd says the market will never trust the team and the stock would rip to $50+ if Liang and others stepped aside. The case leans on Trump being in office. x.com 

Super Micro Computer's CEO reeks of questionable character, and Taiwan's raid on its offices in an expanding chip-export probe adds to the concern. The open questions are how severe any fraud is and whether it is already priced in. x.com 

Super Micro Computer's smuggling scandal is a black eye that will take a long time to heal and likely leave a permanent scar, making it a no-touch stock. Per @ns123abc, co-founder Wally Liaw was arrested and charged with smuggling $2.5B of Nvidia servers to China through a Southeast Asian shell company. With a founder and several employees arrested, vendors may move to Dell. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Super Micro Computer's nearly 40% drop over the past month is a market overreaction, since the allegations targeted a director, not the company, and found no company wrongdoing. Some of the pressure may have been competitor-driven or politically amplified. What matters is engineering strength: it builds roughly all of xAI's servers, is involved early in Terafab, and is often the first partner AI-chip startups such as d-Matrix turn to. It remains a long-term hold. x.com 

Super Micro Computer is hard to invest in despite its absurd guidance, because what management did leaves zero trust in it. x.com