Roger
Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor
Super Micro Computer is getting too cheap to ignore even if its earnings are questionable; its management is the main reason the stock is weak. Without them the shares would likely already be much higher, and @NebbioloNerd says the market will never trust the team and the stock would rip to $50+ if Liang and others stepped aside. The case leans on Trump being in office. x.comÂ
Super Micro's improved expected gross margin kills the bear case, while quarterly revenue near its market cap makes the stock a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. It expects first-quarter gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guidance and revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guidance, against a roughly $21B market cap. Shares should return to all-time highs and, on a Grok-assisted comparison with Dell and HPE, easily top $100; once they break $50, the move to $100 could be fast. … Show more
Super Micro should benefit as data centers buy the servers that house Nvidia's AI chips. Its quarterly sales outlook rose from $15B to $19B; the stock is 36% below its high and trades at 8x next year's earnings. It is a double from here. x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is hard to invest in despite its absurd guidance, because what management did leaves zero trust in it. x.comÂ
Increased AI-platform demand is lifting Super Micro Computer's preliminary revenue above guidance. Supermicro estimates fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guided, and gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guided, primarily due to customer and product mix. No one is bullish enough on the stock; $50+ by year-end is in view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro is a buy on fundamentals, though the near term will be a disaster. It needs time to stabilize under better management, so any buying should be scaled in slowly. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is not worth touching regardless of where the stock goes, because its margin profile does not fit a disciplined investment approach and its CEO is a concern, among other reasons. That does not rule out the stock going higher. x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer's nearly 40% drop over the past month is a market overreaction, since the allegations targeted a director, not the company, and found no company wrongdoing. Some of the pressure may have been competitor-driven or politically amplified. What matters is engineering strength: it builds roughly all of xAI's servers, is involved early in Terafab, and is often the first partner AI-chip startups such as d-Matrix turn to. It remains a long-term hold. x.comÂ
Super Micro should be rerated after blowout 2027 projections: about $70B of revenue guidance against a roughly $20B market cap. The CEO dodged questions on 2027 gross margins and whether they improve by September, so margin estimates remain unclear. x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro is cheap for a reason: it has the worst margins and the worst management team. x.comÂ
Super Micro's fundamentals are outrunning fear over its legal and accounting baggage. Its quarter beat with EPS of $0.84 versus $0.61 expected, gross margin rebounded to 10.1%, showing regained pricing power, and next-quarter revenue is guided up to $12.5 billion as AI customers queue for liquid-cooled servers. Management found no need to restate past results despite audit delays. Given the China export, DOJ and accounting issues, this is a bounce trade, not a long hold. x.com x.comÂ
