Super Micro is cheap for a reason: it has the worst margins and the worst management team. x.comÂ
Jonah Lupton
CEO & CIO of FirstWave Capital, Long-Biased Growth
Super Micro is not worth touching no matter how cheap, because its management cannot be trusted. It has a good customer roster, including xAI for its first Memphis data center, but that matters little without trust in the people behind it. Dell, a bet on its founder, remains the preferred server name, unchanged from a year ago. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is hard to invest in despite its absurd guidance, because what management did leaves zero trust in it. x.comÂ
Super Micro is a buy on fundamentals, though the near term will be a disaster. It needs time to stabilize under better management, so any buying should be scaled in slowly. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is not worth touching regardless of where the stock goes, because its margin profile does not fit a disciplined investment approach and its CEO is a concern, among other reasons. That does not rule out the stock going higher. x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer has been rotten from the beginning, a stock to avoid when so many peers are available. Per @StockMKTNewz, citing CNBC, US prosecutors have charged a Super Micro co-founder, employee and contractor with smuggling Nvidia chips to China, yet the stock is only down about 3%. x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro's improved expected gross margin kills the bear case, while quarterly revenue near its market cap makes the stock a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. It expects first-quarter gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guidance and revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guidance, against a roughly $21B market cap. Shares should return to all-time highs and, on a Grok-assisted comparison with Dell and HPE, easily top $100; once they break $50, the move to $100 could be fast. … Show more
Super Micro Computer is not worth the risk regardless of its business or multiple, given early signs of sketchy business that have now escalated. Per @WOLF_Financial, its co-founder was charged with smuggling about $2.5B of servers with Nvidia AI chips to China via a Southeast Asian shell company, using fake paperwork and dummy servers to fool the compliance team. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is an AI hardware company with a history of fraud and is likely committing some kind of fraud now, so a surprise guide of 15-17% Q4 gross margins versus 8% previously does not make it a credible long. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is getting too cheap to ignore even if its earnings are questionable; its management is the main reason the stock is weak. Without them the shares would likely already be much higher, and @NebbioloNerd says the market will never trust the team and the stock would rip to $50+ if Liang and others stepped aside. The case leans on Trump being in office. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer's $7 billion equity raise is heavy dilution to fund AI spending, and the market is never going to like a raise that large. The stock sold off on the news, fitting a broader weakness theme around dilution for AI spend. x.com x.com x.comÂ