Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Super Micro is not worth touching no matter how cheap, because its management cannot be trusted. It has a good customer roster, including xAI for its first Memphis data center, but that matters little without trust in the people behind it. Dell, a bet on its founder, remains the preferred server name, unchanged from a year ago. x.comÂ
Super Micro is cheap for a reason: it has the worst margins and the worst management team. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is not worth the risk regardless of its business or multiple, given early signs of sketchy business that have now escalated. Per @WOLF_Financial, its co-founder was charged with smuggling about $2.5B of servers with Nvidia AI chips to China via a Southeast Asian shell company, using fake paperwork and dummy servers to fool the compliance team. x.comÂ
Super Micro is a buy on fundamentals, though the near term will be a disaster. It needs time to stabilize under better management, so any buying should be scaled in slowly. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is hard to invest in despite its absurd guidance, because what management did leaves zero trust in it. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is not worth touching regardless of where the stock goes, because its margin profile does not fit a disciplined investment approach and its CEO is a concern, among other reasons. That does not rule out the stock going higher. x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro should benefit as data centers buy the servers that house Nvidia's AI chips. Its quarterly sales outlook rose from $15B to $19B; the stock is 36% below its high and trades at 8x next year's earnings. It is a double from here. x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer should come off the watchlist because its administrative team has a criminal history. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer has been rotten from the beginning, a stock to avoid when so many peers are available. Per @StockMKTNewz, citing CNBC, US prosecutors have charged a Super Micro co-founder, employee and contractor with smuggling Nvidia chips to China, yet the stock is only down about 3%. x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer's nearly 40% drop over the past month is a market overreaction, since the allegations targeted a director, not the company, and found no company wrongdoing. Some of the pressure may have been competitor-driven or politically amplified. What matters is engineering strength: it builds roughly all of xAI's servers, is involved early in Terafab, and is often the first partner AI-chip startups such as d-Matrix turn to. It remains a long-term hold. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is an AI hardware company with a history of fraud and is likely committing some kind of fraud now, so a surprise guide of 15-17% Q4 gross margins versus 8% previously does not make it a credible long. x.comÂ
