Micro2Macr0
Macro Economist
Super Micro Computer could be the next AI multibagger, and its legal overhangs look manageable. The Trump administration is unlikely to hurt a company building out Nvidia infrastructure, even if the co-founder is prosecuted over illegal exports; the DOJ indicted individuals, not the company. The shareholder class action will probably settle for tens to low hundreds of millions, partly covered by insurance, a cash hit but not a threat to the business. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro's improved expected gross margin kills the bear case, while quarterly revenue near its market cap makes the stock a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. It expects first-quarter gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guidance and revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guidance, against a roughly $21B market cap. Shares should return to all-time highs and, on a Grok-assisted comparison with Dell and HPE, easily top $100; once they break $50, the move to $100 could be fast. … Show more
Super Micro is a buy on fundamentals, though the near term will be a disaster. It needs time to stabilize under better management, so any buying should be scaled in slowly. x.comÂ
Super Micro is cheap for a reason: it has the worst margins and the worst management team. x.comÂ
Super Micro should benefit as data centers buy the servers that house Nvidia's AI chips. Its quarterly sales outlook rose from $15B to $19B; the stock is 36% below its high and trades at 8x next year's earnings. It is a double from here. x.com x.comÂ
Increased AI-platform demand is lifting Super Micro Computer's preliminary revenue above guidance. Supermicro estimates fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guided, and gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guided, primarily due to customer and product mix. No one is bullish enough on the stock; $50+ by year-end is in view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is hard to invest in despite its absurd guidance, because what management did leaves zero trust in it. x.comÂ
Super Micro's enterprise data-center demand is boosting margins because that business has better margins than AI racks. Revenue rose 10% quarter on quarter and 90% year on year, net income rose 142% quarter on quarter, and gross margin jumped 76% quarter on quarter. Demand remains hot, and its forecast remains bullish. x.comÂ
Meta's unmet AI demand pays its bottleneck suppliers. Super Micro's $19.5B quarterly outlook and under 8x forward earnings point to a double. CoreWeave's Meta deals total $35.2B; it should easily top $100. Builders say nearly all new sites use Dell or Super Micro; Dell could easily double. Micron's demand is off the charts at 5x forward earnings. Sources say Vertiv's gear is sold out for 2-3 years. VivoPower has 2GW+ potential in 5-7 years. Digi Power X has a $1.1B Cerebras deal. x.com x.com … Show more
Super Micro is not worth touching no matter how cheap, because its management cannot be trusted. It has a good customer roster, including xAI for its first Memphis data center, but that matters little without trust in the people behind it. Dell, a bet on its founder, remains the preferred server name, unchanged from a year ago. x.comÂ
Super Micro Computer is getting too cheap to ignore even if its earnings are questionable; its management is the main reason the stock is weak. Without them the shares would likely already be much higher, and @NebbioloNerd says the market will never trust the team and the stock would rip to $50+ if Liang and others stepped aside. The case leans on Trump being in office. x.comÂ