Tech and semiconductor bounces are mainly driven by less urgent hedge-fund selling rather than fresh buying. Per Goldman Sachs, tech is still being sold amid very low activity; there is no sign risk has been added yet. The unwind may be nearing its end, especially as hyperscalers stick to capex plans and Q3 semiconductor earnings look likely to be positive. Less crowded positioning and more normal multiples leave a healthier base for a longer-term rebuild. x.com 

South Korean equities should keep rebounding if the Iran war reaches a peaceful resolution, and a sell-off driven by elevated oil and gas prices would be a chance to add. x.com 

War escalation and the midterms will keep investors from increasing gross or net semiconductor exposure. SOXX will take out its July lows before any sustained rally; against a suggested 5% dip and 50% rebound, the path is '5% down then 100% down.' x.com  x.com 

US energy stocks face pressure as the US-Iran memorandum of understanding reopens the Strait of Hormuz and lifts the US naval blockade. WTI broke below $80 from near $87 and could head toward $70, as oil, Treasury yields and the dollar broke lower together. Energy was the hardest-hit sector, while airlines rallied on relief from fuel costs. Lower oil eases inflation expectations, with headline CPI at 4.2% but core only 2.9%, removing pressure for Fed hikes. x.com  x.com 

Peace with Iran will be the market catalyst by easing oil-driven inflation and financing concerns. Normal cargo costs would stabilize oil prices as refineries rebuild and production rises; inflation expectations and the US 10-year yield would fall, bringing liquidity back into technology. The deal is an extremely strong suspicion, not concrete knowledge, and its timing is unknown. Unlike the 21.4% SPY drawdown before the April 2025 tariff pause, the index has seen no drawdown yet. x.com 

IQE has its clarity restored now that its strategic review is done, and Deutsche Bank has rated it a Buy with a 60p target. AI data center demand is very strong, defense and satellite communications are ramping, and an £81M raise closes at the end of June. Compound semiconductor materials are the backbone of the AI era. x.com 

ServiceNow, Palantir, SoFi, Robinhood and Arm benefit as markets price a world without Middle East war and with lower oil, rotating from AI into software and other names. Trump is best placed yet to reach an Iran deal; oil in the mid-$70s would ease inflation in coming months, and rates could fall by year end as companies post record profits and indexes hit new highs. An escalation in Iran could bring a near-term drop in equities. x.com 

European financial stocks look badly exposed to socialism, second-order effects from Iran and collapsing credit, so the short on European financials stays. @qthomp, often a sparring partner on tech, fully agrees here, and the FT reports, via @LiveSquawk, that hedge funds are making record bets against European stocks. x.com 

The Nasdaq 100's bounce back near all-time highs on Iran deal hopes gave bulls a false sense of safety, and it is now back at the April levels it belonged at on a risk-weighted basis after ceasefire claims proved false. A 30% rise in 32 trading days on "Iran wants a deal" was never normal enough to hold. x.com  x.com 

IQE's new multi-year InP epiwafer supply deal with Tower Semiconductor shows its product is irreplaceable, adding a third Tier-1 foundry anchor in the AI photonics stack after Lumentum and MACOM. IQE is the non-Chinese InP source Tower needed, a geopolitical moat, and is designed into the optical roadmap from 200G pluggables to 400G-per-lane modulators and optical circuit switches. Tower, which IQE sued for IP theft in 2022, even granted IQE a royalty-free patent license. x.com