European equities offer relatively low cross-region valuations alongside excellent fundamentals across infrastructure, aerospace, space and defense, financials and other industrial segments. This is the most bullish outlook on the region since after Liberation Day last year. Ferrovial, Societe Generale, RWE, OHB, BNP Paribas and Nexans are named as expressions of that view. x.com 

Hyperscaler credit stress and weak financials-versus-staples leadership warn of downside risk in the S&P 500 consolidation. Spreads have broken July wides, though an upside breakout is probable if financials stabilize. So far, tech weakness has lowered yields as Fed hikes are priced out, letting defensives rally and the S&P chop. If the Fed signals Nasdaq weakness won't stop tightening without better data, the tech-yield link could break in an uncomfortable, 2018-like direction. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Private credit and major financials, including Ares, Carlyle, KKR, Blue Owl, Blackstone, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, are in the doghouse over a risk the market fears more than the Iran war. Anthropic's Dario Amodei has said something similar, and more and more companies are letting people go. x.com 

US large-cap stocks are at risk because credit markets move before equities, with junk bonds leading the S&P 500. Elliott Wave International notes CCC-rated junk-bond spreads have widened sharply to their widest level in nearly three years, and that widening junk spreads have often preceded weakness in stocks. x.com 

European equities are a lost cause until new leadership arrives, as stories of entrepreneurs fleeing German bureaucracy show. Saving Europe probably means breaking it first, and the time to buy is in the wreckage. x.com 

European stocks should rebound as the Iran ceasefire takes pressure off a market hedge funds had heavily shorted. Per the FT, hedge funds made record bets against European stocks because of Europe's sensitivity to the Iran war. European photonics is already coming back to life, with IQE up 10.78%, Soitec 9.96% and Sivers 12.7% today. x.com 

The euro loses as the EU centralizes power in Brussels, which accelerates capital flight. Removing national vetoes on foreign policy, which Commission President von der Leyen backed on April 14 as a way to avoid systemic blockages, is the fifth such decision against diversification. It follows tighter stablecoin rules, crypto regulation under AMLR in 2027, a €10,000 cap on cash transactions and 212,000 banking jobs expected to be lost to AI by 2030. x.com 

Emerging markets get squeezed when the dollar spikes, and the safe-haven dollar surge after US-Iran peace talks collapsed shows markets now pricing a longer conflict. A flight to safety reprices the odds of the conflict dragging on, which is bad for risk assets broadly, including growth stocks and emerging markets. Hard assets such as energy, commodities and gold catch a bid when diplomacy breaks down. This is not a time to chase moves. x.com 

Tech stocks face a grim May 2026 as the market story rolls from Hormuz and oil to a financial and economic crash and deflation. Brent and US crude are selling off, with a run through $68 and further downside possible, contrary to calls for $250+ oil. Banks are also at risk as the stagflation narrative gives way to deflation. x.com 

European banks are a structural re-rate of an industry priced like a casino that can trade like a utility. They trade at 8.5x earnings with a 6% dividend yield plus 3% buybacks, and 1.4x tangible book for an expected 16% return on tangible equity, and have beaten the Nasdaq-100 for five years. Cost control, capital returns and steady management run across the sector; Monte dei Paschi, BBVA and ABN AMRO are one trade. A Russia-Ukraine resolution, possibly soon, would lift Europe and Raiffeisen. … Show more