Monolithic Power Systems is more critical to NVIDIA's roadmap than people understand, and the Street looks too light on its revenue growth and margin expansion. It is expected to keep 80%+ share on NVIDIA's Hopper and Blackwell platforms, is collaborating on the 800 VDC data-center power architecture and is expected to be a major supplier for Vera Rubin and the Kyber rack. The stock is breaking out to an all-time high and is spendy on multiples, so it needs a 24+ month hold. x.com 

Meta's unmet AI demand pays its bottleneck suppliers. Super Micro's $19.5B quarterly outlook and under 8x forward earnings point to a double. CoreWeave's Meta deals total $35.2B; it should easily top $100. Builders say nearly all new sites use Dell or Super Micro; Dell could easily double. Micron's demand is off the charts at 5x forward earnings. Sources say Vertiv's gear is sold out for 2-3 years. VivoPower has 2GW+ potential in 5-7 years. Digi Power X has a $1.1B Cerebras deal. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Financing announcements point to more accelerator demand, supporting semiconductors. About $200bn in announced Meta, Anthropic/Broadcom and SpaceX/Nvidia financing likely drives $400bn in XPU purchases. Data centers burn cash until lit, then cash flow 20-40% annually; AI spend rising from 0.1% to 0.5-1% of current payroll could balance the buildout if agents replace roles. Sustainable token demand is the bet, but smaller local models are the bigger risk, though not an immediate concern. x.com  … Show more

High open-source inference margins imply a need for much more compute supply, supporting chipmakers and at least 2027 consensus estimates. DeepSeek is earning roughly 90% gross margins with ten-month GPU paybacks. Those returns look too high for a competitive, low-switching-cost product; more supply should increase competition and move pricing toward returns near the cost of capital, though margins need not fall. Labs face the demand question today; the supply chain probably faces it from 2028. … Show more

Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

Monolithic Power Systems and Analog Devices supply the analog power delivery that AI GPUs need, which the market may not have fully priced. Industry checks suggest Monolithic holds about 70% of voltage-regulator sockets on NVIDIA's newest GPUs, which run below one volt while drawing over a kilowatt. Analog Devices' data-center revenue grew over 90% year over year as rack power moves toward megawatt scale. Tessara's Board Power Conversion score sits at 73/100 and is tightening. x.com 

TSMC's strong AI demand is straining supply, while solid company fundamentals and attractive semiconductor valuations make an abrupt stop to its advance unlikely. TSMC's Wendell Huang expects 2026-28 capex to be significantly higher than in the previous three years to support customer growth; he says most capex is tied to long-term demand. x.com 

Marvell is a 2030 stock: the market sold it 32% off its high because the payoff starts in 2029. Data center is 79% of revenue and growing 46%. Management raised its fiscal 2028 target to $18B, said custom silicon more than doubles next year, and in August signed a Google TPU agreement with up to $120B of revenue potential over six years. x.com 

The market may still be underestimating Marvell as it becomes a key supplier of custom silicon and connectivity for the AI build-out. At its Investor Day, Marvell put its addressable market at about $400 billion by 2030, targeted about $20B of FY28 revenue and said revenue could reach $70-90B by FY31. Last quarter revenue rose 37% to $2.74B on AI and data-center demand, and Nvidia's Jensen Huang reportedly called Marvell the next trillion-dollar company. x.com  x.com 

Super Micro is shifting from low-margin commodity assembly to high-margin rack-scale direct liquid cooling infrastructure, with gross margin expanding to 15-17%, nearly double its prior 8.2-8.4% outlook, alongside $60B+ in new quarterly orders. Q4 revenue near the low end of $11.0-12.5B guidance reflects supply constraints, not weaker demand, and next quarter's guide rose $20B to $72B. The key question is whether mid-teens margins are a sustainable reset for FY2027. x.com  x.com