TheValueist
Discretionary Long/Short Investor, TMT/Energy, Convexity & Factor Awareness
Monolithic Power Systems is more critical to NVIDIA's roadmap than people understand, and the Street looks too light on its revenue growth and margin expansion. It is expected to keep 80%+ share on NVIDIA's Hopper and Blackwell platforms, is collaborating on the 800 VDC data-center power architecture and is expected to be a major supplier for Vera Rubin and the Kyber rack. The stock is breaking out to an all-time high and is spendy on multiples, so it needs a 24+ month hold. x.com
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
A rising value of compute per watt should benefit AI cloud, chip, connectivity and power suppliers. Elon Musk says that value will rise over time. Nebius has Microsoft and Meta deals; Marvell benefits from custom silicon demand; Credo connects GPUs; Vistra has long-term nuclear supply deals with Amazon and Meta; Nokia's Nvidia partnership could help it capture data-center networking growth. x.com x.com
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com
Monolithic Power Systems holds a key position in AI power delivery for GPUs and ASICs, where demand is strong and supply tight; the note initiates at Buy with a $1,706 target, 35x 2027E EPS. Rising GPU power and rack density push conventional power delivery past its limits, driving demand for high-phase 12V-to-1V regulators, with vertical power modules and DrMOS shortages supporting pricing. Enterprise Data sales are forecast to rise 153% in 2026 and 81% in 2027, with EPS of $28 and $49. x.com
Financing announcements point to more accelerator demand, supporting semiconductors. About $200bn in announced Meta, Anthropic/Broadcom and SpaceX/Nvidia financing likely drives $400bn in XPU purchases. Data centers burn cash until lit, then cash flow 20-40% annually; AI spend rising from 0.1% to 0.5-1% of current payroll could balance the buildout if agents replace roles. Sustainable token demand is the bet, but smaller local models are the bigger risk, though not an immediate concern. x.com … Show more
Nvidia's valuation has become comically disconnected from its blockbuster earnings, with the stock ranging in the same band since April. Value is accumulating at the bottom of the AI stack, where Nvidia and the memory makers are the big winners, and it offers the only complete package of hardware, software, networking and execution. The market underestimates the capital power Jensen Huang now commands to fund the ecosystem, including a contrarian push into open source. x.com
Low multiples give AI infrastructure good risk/reward as demand outruns supply and agentic workloads have runway. TSMC at 17x 2027E EPS appears to have all the accelerator and CPU demand it can handle this year and next; Ultra Clean is at 8x, MKS 12x, TTM 13x, Nvidia 14x and Celestica 15x. Kioxia at 3x and Samsung preferreds at 2.5x carry a big discount on pricing and cycle fears. Multiples imply a 2027 capex peak and meaningful drop; 2028 capex growth is expected, but below 2027's rate. x.com … Show more
Meta's unmet AI demand pays its bottleneck suppliers. Super Micro's $19.5B quarterly outlook and under 8x forward earnings point to a double. CoreWeave's Meta deals total $35.2B; it should easily top $100. Builders say nearly all new sites use Dell or Super Micro; Dell could easily double. Micron's demand is off the charts at 5x forward earnings. Sources say Vertiv's gear is sold out for 2-3 years. VivoPower has 2GW+ potential in 5-7 years. Digi Power X has a $1.1B Cerebras deal. x.com x.com … Show more
NVIDIA's GPU value pool faces architectural competition and shorter useful lives than ten-year assumptions imply. Etched and other accelerator designs may challenge performance within five years, while power limits favor relentless gains in performance per watt; past GPU generations improved more than 2-3x, and industry experts reportedly used four-year lives before GPT. The range of outcomes remains wide. x.com x.com x.com
Nvidia's higher token output per watt could win it share as access to power becomes a bigger constraint, according to Nvidia. The market expects further share losses to ASICs, helping explain its 15x calendar-2027 P/E; a small sentiment shift could expand the multiple. Nvidia remains especially attractive paired with shorts in semiconductors and should outperform the sector through its November 19 earnings. x.com
