Herman Jin
Formerly in Asia FICC at Goldman Sachs, Macro & Semiconductor Investing
Snowflake and Palantir could spark a reversal in software because they benefit from AI yet sit inside a heavily shorted software ETF. Many hedge funds run long-semis, short-software-ETF trades, and because the ETF is not weighted purely by market cap, smaller names absorbed a lot of short selling and were pushed very low. Snowflake and Palantir carry high weights, so strong results from them could easily blow up the ETF's shorts and turn the sector. x.comÂ
Not every software company will be eaten by AI, so breaking the short-software, long-semiconductor trade is this year's gold mine. AI should replace some software and some of the people who use it, while empowering other software and users. Investors will realize they can't blindly short the software ETF IGV, with Oracle sitting in the middle. Crypto investors focused on hardware semiconductors should look at software, especially the AI beneficiaries. x.com x.comÂ
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.comÂ
These 12 stocks offer exposure to AI, automation, health care, consumer growth and nuclear demand. AMD makes AI chips; Oracle builds AI cloud; Vertex has multiple drug opportunities. Arista supplies data-center switches, KLA inspection tools and Cadence chip-design tools. Palantir sells AI platforms; Symbotic automates warehouses; Alphabet spans search, cloud and AI. Celsius has US consumer momentum, AppLovin runs high-margin mobile ads, and Cameco mines uranium and co-owns Westinghouse. x.com … Show more
The AI bull likely needs months of consolidation at minimum because more AI stocks are under distribution at once than at any point since the bull market began. Leadership passed from Nvidia, from 2023 to late 2024, to Palantir, through late 2025, to Sandisk, which topped in 2026. The AI bull can resume if and when new leaders step up. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
AI infrastructure, cloud and advertising monetization, critical-material demand and chipmaking technology underpin a cross-sector list of 25 stocks expected to go parabolic. The named drivers include HBM for AI data centers, custom silicon and optical networking, Netflix's ad tier, lithium for EVs, uranium for nuclear energy and copper for electrification. x.comÂ
High-quality software stocks such as ServiceNow, Cloudflare, Figma and Palantir look set to gain as money eventually rotates out of crowded semis, memory, data centers, AI infrastructure, space and defense. Software is underloved, and these names rose in sympathy with Snowflake's strong earnings, possibly the start of a rotation. The quiet third month of the quarter is a good time to position for gains into mid-July earnings, and insider buying is a signal worth following. x.comÂ
Buying software stocks is the way to position against AI hype, since the AI narrative has devalued them. AI looks massively overhyped and its valuations cannot prove out, but shorting is impractical with volatility premiums this high. Agreeing with @RealZoltanT that SaaS is the best long if you want to be short OpenAI and Anthropic, SaaS is set to rip. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Quality software has room to run and semiconductors' correction has more to go, because positioning is unwinding from opposite extremes. Semiconductors entered the week at the 100th percentile of positioning and software at the 0th, so the rotation is a correction in the most crowded trade. The KOSPI fell 5.5%, with SK Hynix down 9%. AI demand has not changed, but positioning must clear first: stay long Snowflake, Datadog, Fortinet and CrowdStrike, and reduce semis into any bounce. x.comÂ
Software stocks may benefit from the AI displacement trade's complete reversal through 2026: instead of AI supposedly displacing traditional software companies, software companies could potentially displace the AI trade itself. x.comÂ
Security software is arguably more of an AI bubble than semiconductors. Firms are bid up to nosebleed multiples on moderate AI-related revenue acceleration while facing medium- to long-term risks from Microsoft, Google and the AI labs and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5%. Their forward P/Es rest on non-GAAP earnings that exclude large stock compensation. A reversal could come from results missing high buy-side bars, security share gains by Microsoft or Google, or AI lab security launches. x.com … Show more
These twelve stocks could be monster buys going into Q4. Nvidia remains king of AI, AMD an underestimated number two, Palantir the AI operating system for governments and large companies, and Astera Labs builds AI-server connectivity. Nebius just raised GPU prices, IREN holds scarce power and CoreWeave is the top pure-play AI cloud. Robinhood is building a super app, SoFi has a bank charter and fast growth, Reddit has data AI wants, AppLovin top margins and Hims & Hers broad telehealth. x.com … Show more
