Seven stocks trade at forward P/Es far above the S&P 500's roughly 22x, leaving little room for disappointment. Tesla, at 186x, needs Robotaxi and Optimus to deliver. SpaceX, at about 108x, is valued near $2T on about $23B of sales. Arm, at 219x, already prices in heavy AI growth. Palantir, at 81x and 66x sales, can't afford slower growth. Intel, at 52x, prices in a foundry turnaround before profits. CrowdStrike, at 172x, and Palo Alto Networks, at 80x, are great businesses at huge premiums. … Show more

Microsoft and software stocks broadly still look expensive, because AI will get exponentially better over the next two years and the market may reset software valuations much lower. Software valuations have always been ludicrous, and heavy stock-based compensation behind many software revenues is widely ignored. Winners will emerge, but picking them is not worth trying. x.com  x.com 

These twelve stocks could dominate the next era by meeting infrastructure and consumer demand. TSMC makes AI chips; Palo Alto Networks secures cloud; GE Aerospace earns engine-service revenue; IREN builds AI cloud; Broadcom supplies chips and networking; Intuitive Surgical sells surgical robots. Strategy offers bitcoin exposure; e.l.f. Beauty serves Gen Z; Robinhood expands finance; The Trade Desk serves advertisers; Walmart adds ads and memberships; Vistra powers AI data centers. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta should keep compounding through higher-for-longer rates because they fund AI capex with real cash flow. Inflation printed 4.2%, the hottest in three years, with energy up 23.5% on the Iran oil shock, pushing rate cuts further away. Late-cycle leverage, like margin loans on pre-revenue AI IPOs, hits speculative names and cash-burning private labs first. Today's AI selloff resembles December 1999, not March 2000, since the mega-caps already print cash. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Palantir, CrowdStrike and Cloudflare are top-tier companies, but their valuations may have reached bubble territory, a reason to book profits on long-term holds. Their combined market cap has grown from about $90B to $840B, and their P/E and P/S multiples price in much future growth. CrowdStrike and Cloudflare in particular trade on hopes that the agentic era, with bots charged for access and usage-based AI pricing, will make revenue explode. Trimming Cloudflare and CrowdStrike has started. … Show more

An open letter from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Microsoft and 100+ organizations urging a global surge in cyber defense is a demand signal, telling every board to make security an immediate priority. CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, Fortinet, SentinelOne, Okta, Cloudflare, Tenable, Rubrik and Akamai are positioned to benefit most. Nine of them signed the letter, and Rubrik sells resilience for attacks that get through. Palo Alto's next-gen security ARR grew 60%, and Rubrik's revenue 46%. … Show more

Google search will hit a wall at some point, and investors are likely far too optimistic about AI's long-term impact on search, which is over 60% of Alphabet's revenue and probably about 80% of profits. AI has gotten exponentially better in the 20 months since Google was written off, yet sentiment has flipped to very bullish. Apple will switch to an LLM for search. Google will survive, and this is not a short; it is a call that sentiment has gotten way too bullish. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Debt-funded AI building is making tech stocks vulnerable to a 25-30% pullback as rates and energy prices rise. AI company borrowing reached $466B this year versus $101B a year earlier; weekly default-insurance trading on seven AI names rose from under $2B in July to over $9B in September. Keep cash for lower prices, though 30% earnings growth and a 19x market multiple argue this is not an AI bubble. x.com 

Cybersecurity stocks catching a bid makes sense, because boards and CTOs will react strongly to cyber risks from agent proliferation. AI lab chiefs Dario Amodei and Sam Altman proving untrustworthy again also makes CTOs less willing to use their labs for cyber. The multiples are too high, though. x.com 

Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet are high-quality companies that trade cheaper than the market despite AI bubble fears. The S&P 500 trades at 28 times earnings, versus 24 times for Microsoft, 25 times for Meta and 27 times for Alphabet. x.com