Diversified cash flows in the billions make the AI-buildout basket more appealing than standalone model companies. Many members look reasonably priced and have longer records of delivering returns; Anthropic and OpenAI look much more like gambles at current valuations, though either could appeal at the right price. A possible equal-weight portfolio to revisit in five years includes Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle and SpaceX. x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's vertical integration and moat make its current valuation attractive. Its forward P/E is 19.78, below the 22.51 median shown since 2019. Alphabet is also valued below Tesla and SpaceX combined, despite the chart showing Google's quarterly revenue far exceeding theirs; that comparison does not add up. x.com  x.com 

Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta are not getting cheap; their multiples are sliding because separate monopolies are turning into one competitive market. They now spend enormous sums to sell the same AI to the same customers, funded largely by cyclical ads, on unproven returns. Microsoft faces AI eating per-seat licensing, Amazon fights in both retail and cloud, Alphabet's search premium is gone, and Meta keeps going all in for less. Markets can't price not knowing what a business will be. … Show more

Alphabet's earnings growth makes its valuation look attractive. It trades at 21x forward earnings and a 0.47 PEG while EPS grows 34% year over year; shares are down almost 9% year to date. Search still grows 12% and Cloud grows 103%, undercutting the concern that Search will sink the business. x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's AI capex payback is being repriced, making its post-earnings decline more than a one-day mood swing. Guidance and cloud and AI margin commentary are the near-term tests. If growth continues but the multiple compresses, the risk is duration in mega-cap AI, not a collapse in technology growth. x.com 

AI spending ultimately flows back to the hyperscalers, which still look overlooked by retail investors. Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon may be near all-time highs now, but they should reach new highs in roughly three years. x.com  x.com 

A ten-year low in forward P/E makes hyperscaler valuations look more than reasonable. Goldman Sachs' chart tracks Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle as a basket. x.com 

Microsoft and software stocks broadly still look expensive, because AI will get exponentially better over the next two years and the market may reset software valuations much lower. Software valuations have always been ludicrous, and heavy stock-based compensation behind many software revenues is widely ignored. Winners will emerge, but picking them is not worth trying. x.com  x.com 

Nvidia, Broadcom and Meta look attractively valued on PEG ratios, while Apple looks expensive. A PEG below 1 signals mispriced growth and above 2 means things are getting expensive; Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet rate as reasonable. x.com