Nvidia, Broadcom and Meta look attractively valued on PEG ratios, while Apple looks expensive. A PEG below 1 signals mispriced growth and above 2 means things are getting expensive; Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet rate as reasonable. x.com
Investing visuals
Technology Investor, Visual Company Research
Low PEG ratios and continuing AI demand make leading AI stocks attractive after rolling corrections. Nvidia is at 0.39x PEG, Amazon 0.64x, Broadcom 0.66x, Micron 0.73x, Oracle 0.59x and TSMC 0.41x. This usually signals at least a local bottom, possibly a major one; midterm-year seasonality helps into year-end. Nvidia, Broadcom and Amazon remain favorites; Micron and TSMC look buyable on dips. Low PEG can mislead if growth slows or estimates are wrong. x.com
Nvidia is the cheapest Magnificent Seven stock on a five-year PEG ratio at 0.72, below the 1.0 fair-value mark, while Microsoft at 1.33, Amazon at 1.81, Alphabet at 2.34, Apple at 2.43 and Tesla at 5.87 are expensive for their growth. That valuation dispersion is massive, and the market is mispricing some of them. x.com x.com
Apple has the most predictable cash flows, including future cash flows, and that dependability appears to be what investors reward. Its P/E is about 40 versus 27 for Nvidia, 22 for Meta and 16 for Alphabet; Meta's free cash flow has turned negative. Leveraged build-out companies have been hit hardest while Apple has outperformed, but Apple investors could be wrong and the point at which its premium becomes too high remains open. x.com x.com x.com
Amazon looks cheap against its expected long-term earnings growth if that growth proves accurate. Its five-year consensus growth is the fastest in the Magnificent 7 after Nvidia, while its 0.90 forward P/E-to-growth ratio is the lowest excluding Nvidia. x.com x.com
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta are not getting cheap; their multiples are sliding because separate monopolies are turning into one competitive market. They now spend enormous sums to sell the same AI to the same customers, funded largely by cyclical ads, on unproven returns. Microsoft faces AI eating per-seat licensing, Amazon fights in both retail and cloud, Alphabet's search premium is gone, and Meta keeps going all in for less. Markets can't price not knowing what a business will be. … Show more
Anthropic's lack of profit makes NVIDIA, Broadcom, Meta and Amazon preferable investments. Their forward P/Es are 15x, 17.5x, 20x and 25x, respectively. x.com
Alphabet's earnings growth makes its valuation look attractive. It trades at 21x forward earnings and a 0.47 PEG while EPS grows 34% year over year; shares are down almost 9% year to date. Search still grows 12% and Cloud grows 103%, undercutting the concern that Search will sink the business. x.com x.com
Broadcom has no material upside left even if it hits its 2029 targets, because the AI capex boom is nearing its peak and its 25x sales multiple, up from 5x before 2023, would reset to about 10x. Hyperscalers are at their limits: Alphabet sold shares to raise funds, Meta is considering it and Amazon issued bonds, so frequent upward capex revisions are unlikely and a re-rating is inevitable. Nvidia, at about 20x forward earnings and 9x sales, is the better semiconductor bet. x.com
Nvidia, Broadcom, Alphabet and Amazon combine explosive growth with surprisingly reasonable valuations. Nvidia trades at 19x forward earnings; Broadcom at 20x with AI chip revenue up 221%; Alphabet at 26x with cloud up 82% last quarter; and Amazon at 27x with AWS up 37%. x.com