Investor_NICK
Biotech & Technology Investor
Lucid is probably headed to zero, and Uber's $300 million bet on it, a moonshot to eventually compete with Waymo and Tesla in fully autonomous driving, looks like money tossed at a failing company. Yahoo Finance reports Lucid shares plunged on reports it is weighing going private or Chapter 11. x.comÂ
Lucid is easily a strong sell, even after its shares jumped 103% when the company denied bankruptcy rumors. x.comÂ
Lucid looks to be in serious trouble after reports it hired AlixPartners, one of the world's biggest Chapter 11 restructuring firms. It has not filed for bankruptcy, and Lucid called the rumors false, citing liquidity well into next year, but hiring such a firm suggests otherwise. Elon Musk has long warned Lucid is tracking toward bankruptcy, and building millions of EVs at scale, controlling costs and turning a profit is far harder than designing an attractive car. x.com x.comÂ
Lucid has a solid catalyst in Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal taking a 5% stake, and low-float names like it can rip hard when big money steps in. x.comÂ
Uber looks rather negative because driver reclassification, consumer cutbacks and easy switching threaten its business. Making drivers employees could raise costs and push ride prices up around 40%. Food delivery and comfort rides are cut when budgets tighten; riders switch to Lyft or Bolt for a few euros. Tesla or Waymo could bypass Uber with their own apps, and Google can scale quickly. Despite being a great company, Uber has too many unknowns; it is preferable to stay on the sidelines. x.comÂ
Uber looks cheap, and insiders who know the company best are buying, a point @SteurJonas69716 raises. The stock is a solid buy as long as robotaxis do not kill the business, which is doubtful. x.com x.comÂ
Lucid is effectively at zero and headed for bankruptcy because its Saudi backers have stopped funding it. Uber's $300M investment in Lucid is now worth zero as well. A Zerohedge headline notes Lucid says AlixPartners has not recommended bankruptcy. x.com x.comÂ
Lucid faces bankruptcy risk because Saudi Arabia's PIF, wrecked by poor investments, will cut future funding as it did with LIV Golf. The rumor that sent shares down 45% came from a blogger, but there is zero chance the Saudis keep backing the company. The car is fine but badly overpriced for its limited abilities: a $115,000 GT is like paying double for a Toyota Camry. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Lucid Motors is on death watch, burning cash with massively negative gross and EBITDA margins. It ended the quarter with $714M of cash after negative free cash flow of $1.4B, and had to raise another $1B from its Saudi backers. x.comÂ
Rivian is next in line for trouble once investors stop funding its cash-burning business. Lucid's stock fell 48% to an all-time low after a report that it is considering going private or filing for Chapter 11; Lucid had not commented. x.comÂ
Uber cannot be owned until its robotaxi strategy and economics are clearer, including whether it stays asset-light or pivots to asset-heavy. Calling it 10 times 2027 free cash flow may be unfair if an asset-heavy pivot sends that cash into capex. Google puts global ridesharing at $150-180 billion in gross bookings a year, reaching $200 billion by decade's end, likely not big enough for Waymo, Tesla and Uber to all win while each spends tens of billions on fleets. x.com x.com x.comÂ
