Jabil's photonics business is underpriced, as the market values it as a contract manufacturer shipping 1.6T transceivers while its photonics revenue tells a different story. Per @aleabitoreddit, Jabil looks compelling at $38B, with massive supply chains in place, Intel's former pluggable lines and a validated hyperscaler supply chain, a more scalable model than building laser fabs. With Sivers as the bottleneck into H1 2027, the setup looks very interesting. x.com 

Marvell risks paying a peak-scarcity price for Lumentum if optical supply catches up by 2028-30. The proposed ~$99B deal values Lumentum at roughly 20x guided annualized revenue and 58x estimated after-tax operating income, while Lumentum, Coherent and Chinese suppliers are adding laser capacity. The DSP-and-laser combination has strategic logic, but durable scarcity economics and Nvidia's response remain uncertain. x.com 

Jabil's valuation already prices in most of its AI tailwind, so the current price is a chase rather than a buy. Intelligent Infrastructure revenue jumped 33.9% to $12.32B on AI server and liquid-cooling builds, and Jabil is partnering with Apptronik to manufacture the Apollo humanoid. At 17.1x forward earnings and 12.3x EV/EBITDA it looks reasonable, but dips below about $300 are the buy zone, not $338. x.com 

Rising 1.6T switching demand favors optical suppliers, though their execution risks vary. Bank of America says the market could grow ~101% annually through 2030. Marvell's leading DSPs and Lumentum's supply-short 200G EML lasers are lowest risk; Applied Optoelectronics' capacity expansion and Fabrinet's customer concentration make them medium risk. Aeluma remains pre-commercial, while Lightwave Logic's polymer modulators are a high-risk moonshot despite its TSM partnership. x.com 

Jabil's data-center infrastructure segment is growing and outpacing the drag from legacy mobility and EV exposure and margin mix, earning a Buy rating. The stock has done nothing for a month, but upcoming earnings could be a nice catalyst for a push higher on that segment's growth. x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors' management is letting a generational InP bottleneck pass it by. Burning cash on incremental fab tweaks keeps it just a laser vendor, and the call gave generic evasions on the two metrics that move the stock: its six pluggable engagements and foundry allocations. The CFO's hedging on a US dual listing shows timid complacency that will keep Sivers priced like a sleepy European component supplier rather than a high-multiple tech engine like SK hynix or ASML. x.com 

Celestica's valuation is too high if its expected growth over the next three years does not materialize. Contract electronics manufacturers usually trade at low-teens earnings multiples in normal times and single digits in bear markets, as Jabil shows. A reply argues it trades at 36x 2026 earnings on 50% growth and would be under 25x 2027 earnings, but that rests on the growth arriving. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics' operating leverage could be substantial if 800G scales and 1.6T follows, and the market may be underestimating its laser opportunity. 800G volumes are ramping with a major hyperscaler, its backlog more than doubled after $124 million of new orders, and US manufacturing adds a potential tailwind. About 15% short interest and recent dilution add uncertainty to this smaller, more volatile optics play. x.com 

Lumentum remains attractive as its CEO says it is completely sold out through early 2029, extending his earlier 2028 horizon despite roughly 12x growth at its main Japan factory in two years. New laser capacity takes three to five years to build, and hyperscalers are helping fund expansion through long-term commitments, pointing to persistent supply pressure. x.com 

Sivers Semiconductors is expensive because its valuation rests on a $1.2 billion opportunity pipeline, an unreliable KPI. At 15% conversion next year, it trades near 22x 2027 sales versus Lumentum's 14x and Coherent's and AAOI's 5x, and about 13x 2029 sales versus 3-9x for incumbents with contracted LTAs. The InP laser shortage is Lumentum's and Coherent's asset; Sivers gains access only in H2 2027 if all goes to plan and needs the shortage into 2028. It is a swing trade, not a conviction hold. … Show more