Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
Soluna Holdings is a terrible long because it is diluting shareholders massively, with about $1 billion of dilution, including an active $500M ATM, against a market cap of roughly $200M. That ATM sells into the open market whenever retail buys, likely diluting buyers toward zero while management touts the bigger balance sheet and awards itself stock compensation. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Aurora Innovation's slow ramp raises dilution risk as cash burn and capital needs rise. Per @bbrooklynboss, Aurora expanded its ATM capacity by $754 million to $1 billion; full issuance at $4.76 could add about 210 million shares, or 9.4%, though no immediate offering has been announced. x.comÂ
Soluna Holdings holders should exit, because almost everything Mike Alfred buys usually drops hard, making his buying exit liquidity. The call responds to a post the author replies to that reports a Soluna position raised to 200,000 shares, with plans to add on further weakness. x.com x.comÂ
Soluna is growing fast, locking in cheap green power and building large AI data centers, though heavy build-out means profits are not here yet. Revenue rose 145% to $15.1M against a $22.6M net loss. It bought the 150MW Briscoe wind farm, signed the Kati 2 AI joint venture, has a 6.3GW power pipeline and holds $113M of cash. The chart shows a potential wedge breakout, with a next target of $1.66. x.comÂ
Soluna still lacks credibility, and Digi Power X looks like the better name. Confidence in Soluna's management remains low, and the company has a collection of small, piecemeal sites, most locked into bitcoin hosting and mining. x.comÂ
Applied Optoelectronics' heavy spending keeps the risk of more dilutive share sales alive. Its latest $600M raise took 5.69M shares at an average $105.36, versus 2.95M shares for $550M at $186.69 under the May program, lifting the share count from 38.9M in May 2024 to about 90.3M. Commitments keep growing: a $94.1M Houston cleanroom, more Houston leases, a $26.8M building, a Ningbo factory lease and a doubled Ningbo credit line, plus $335M of H1 capex. The next 10-Q will show what cash remains. … Show more
Soluna's pivot to renewable-powered AI infrastructure is working, and its growth projects should close the valuation gap once construction begins. EPS of -$0.24 beat the -$0.62 estimate, its largest beat ever; revenue rose about 59% with data hosting revenue more than doubling, and cash of $86 million eases bear worries. Net losses grew on overhead. Its 350 MW Kati 2 AI campus is in design and Dorothy 3 is advancing. Renaissance raised its stake about 226% and BlackRock about 52%. x.com x.comÂ
Soluna Holdings' weekly chart points to a mid-term downtrend: a descending ribbon is forming unless price can clear the longest momentum bars at $1.12 and $1.28. Support sits at $1.03. Whale accumulation has steadily declined over the past year and now stands at 10.7%. x.comÂ
Ondas Holdings' acquisition strategy risks diluting shareholders if revenue cannot catch up with share issuance over a modest period. The model can work if it does; otherwise value gets diluted away. Fair value looks like $3-5. x.comÂ
Soluna Holdings owns the two scarcest inputs in AI infrastructure, renewable power and permitted data-center land, at a market cap far below what its pipeline could be worth. Its 123MW earns about $240,000 per MW a year on Bitcoin hosting, versus $0.5-1M per MW for AI compute. That makes the 100MW Kati 2 worth $50-100M a year and the 300+MW Dorothy 3, next to its newly bought 150MW Briscoe Wind Farm, $150-300M, versus $29.7M of 2025 revenue. Risks: a $57M net loss, share overhang and execution. … Show more
Cipher Mining's convertible notes cap intermediate-term upside at around $22. Raising $775M through an ATM while shares were in the $20s would have caused less dilution and avoided forward share-price risk; doing this deal at $11 instead was terribly timed. The stock is not worth touching here. x.com x.comÂ
