Serenity
AI & Semiconductor Supply-Chain Researcher, Trader
Owning SK Hynix directly beats buying SK Square for its discount. Holding companies trade below NAV for a reason: there is no good way to force an arbitrage on their assets, just as Grayscale vehicles traded below the value of their crypto. SK Square's roughly 20% Hynix stake may look worth more than the company, but that discount can persist. x.comÂ
SK hynix's expected widening supply-demand gap makes the 2028 downcycle implied by its valuation seem impossible. SK hynix management says its shares are undervalued relative to earnings and cash flow, and that assessment rings true. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix remains a buying opportunity, with its US ADR premium over Korean shares now at an all-time low of 32.66%. x.com x.comÂ
SK Inc. and SK Square offer a way to own underlying businesses at a holding-company discount, assuming management acts in minority shareholders' interests. SK Square's 20% stake in SK hynix has benefited from portfolio cleanup, buybacks and executive-pay alignment; its shares outperformed SK hynix over the past three years. SK Inc. trades at a massive discount to its underlying SK hynix stake. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix's reported growth and shareholder returns make its low earnings multiple stand out. Revenue rose 328% year over year and operating profit 632%, with shareholder returns worth about 9.5% of market cap, yet the stock trades at roughly 3.0 times estimated 2027 earnings. x.comÂ
A new sell-side forecast for SK hynix's Q4 operating profit strengthens its low-valuation case. The report looks for a 40% sequential rise to $88B, up 560% year over year. SK hynix might earn over $350B in operating profit in 2027 against an $800B market cap, or about 2x EV/operating profit after accounting for cash and its Kioxia stake. It could afford to buy back half its shares over three years. x.comÂ
SK Square could outperform SK hynix as Hynix buybacks raise its 20% ownership to 25-30% over the next few years and cash distributions let SK Square repurchase shares or buy more Hynix, potentially shrinking its 45% NAV discount. It remains the favorite memory exposure; if SK hynix doubles in 12-18 months, SK Square could gain 30-40% more than Hynix. x.comÂ
SK Square's NAV discount is overstated because the company would owe tax on its holdings. For US investors, the tax reporting implications also make it not worth owning. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix's 'insane' earnings set up a sharp move higher in the shares. x.comÂ
SK Square is the ultimate way to play the HBM boom without paying full price for SK hynix. A post the author replies to notes it trades at about a 38% discount to its SK hynix stake, with management targeting below 30% by 2028 through share cancellations and buybacks. If management sticks to those buybacks and Value Up pressure keeps building, that discount is close to free money, though capturing it takes real research. x.com x.comÂ
SK hynix's exceptional margins and contracted capacity underpin a bullish outlook despite shares sitting around half their June high. Q3 operating margin reached 80%, up from 47% a year ago; long-term deals with 14 customers cover over half of 2027-28 capacity, and management expects demand to exceed supply through 2030. x.comÂ
