Asymmetric Bets
Hedge Fund Analyst, Private Company CFO, Idiosyncratic Stocks & Accelerating Fundamentals
Owning SK Hynix directly beats buying SK Square for its discount. Holding companies trade below NAV for a reason: there is no good way to force an arbitrage on their assets, just as Grayscale vehicles traded below the value of their crypto. SK Square's roughly 20% Hynix stake may look worth more than the company, but that discount can persist. x.com
Bit Digital deserves to trade at a discount because management is levering its ETH to finance a related party it controls, so shareholders should not value that ETH at NAV. Its new "Strategic Asset Company" label defines a category around its own activities and compares it with DATs and ETFs that do not perform them. Investors can hold ETH themselves; Bit Digital should return the ETH to shareholders and wind down. x.com x.com x.com x.com
SK Square trades at a 47% discount to the value of its SK hynix stake, and that gap is set to narrow. It owns $182 billion of SK hynix against a $98 billion market cap and $1 billion of cash. Under Korea's Value-Up push, management targets a NAV discount of 30% or less, which requires large SK hynix dividends, and discount compression is now part of management pay incentives. That makes SK Square a better way to own SK hynix than SK hynix itself. x.com x.com x.com x.com
Fundrise Innovation Fund trades at about $163, far above a net asset value of roughly $60-70. Marked at current valuations, its stakes in Anthropic, SpaceX, Databricks, Epic Games and others put NAV above $60, not the $20-30 suggested in a post the author replies to. The October unlock of a large amount of shares matters, though many holders may hold through year-end to qualify for long-term gains and defer taxes. x.com x.com
Silvia combines an AI product with early product-market fit and a bitcoin balance sheet, yet the market ascribes little value to the platform. A quarter of monthly active users are paying members, a strong free-to-paid conversion signal. AI is offense and bitcoin is defense. Silvia has closed its NAV discount by selling bitcoin to buy back shares below NAV, raising bitcoin per remaining share, and will keep repurchasing whenever shares trade below NAV. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
SK Inc. and SK Square offer a way to own underlying businesses at a holding-company discount, assuming management acts in minority shareholders' interests. SK Square's 20% stake in SK hynix has benefited from portfolio cleanup, buybacks and executive-pay alignment; its shares outperformed SK hynix over the past three years. SK Inc. trades at a massive discount to its underlying SK hynix stake. x.com x.com
RoboStrategy is a red flag because buyers pay about five times its net asset value, effectively valuing its Figure stake at over $200 billion versus Figure's $39 billion valuation. Shares trade at $37.92 against a NAV of $7.34, and about $2 billion of ongoing dilution exploits that gap. Most retail buyers don't read filings or understand closed-end funds, so the price reflects float dynamics, not fundamentals, leaving them as exit liquidity. Unitree, the top humanoid maker, lists at $6 billion. … Show more
Strategy runs a Ponzi-like loop: new capital buys bitcoin, which lifts the stock and attracts more capital, while the business makes almost no organic cash flow and collapses without constant raising. It trades at a big premium to NAV, effectively selling $1 of bitcoin for $1.50, lost $12.5B in Q1 2026, and has now sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 despite Michael Saylor's vow never to sell. Owning bitcoin itself makes more sense than owning Strategy. x.com x.com
SK Square is the ultimate way to play the HBM boom without paying full price for SK hynix. A post the author replies to notes it trades at about a 38% discount to its SK hynix stake, with management targeting below 30% by 2028 through share cancellations and buybacks. If management sticks to those buybacks and Value Up pressure keeps building, that discount is close to free money, though capturing it takes real research. x.com x.com
SK Square is a discounted way to own SK hynix, one of the world's most important memory companies. Its NAV is about ₩1.8 million per share, almost all of it the SK hynix stake, while the stock trades near ₩1.0 million, a 40-45% discount. Korean holding-company discounts never fully vanish, but management now targets a discount below 30% by 2028 and is returning capital via buybacks, cancellations or dividends. The case only needs SK hynix to keep compounding and the gap to narrow slightly. x.com