Jordan
Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction
Strategy runs a Ponzi-like loop: new capital buys bitcoin, which lifts the stock and attracts more capital, while the business makes almost no organic cash flow and collapses without constant raising. It trades at a big premium to NAV, effectively selling $1 of bitcoin for $1.50, lost $12.5B in Q1 2026, and has now sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 despite Michael Saylor's vow never to sell. Owning bitcoin itself makes more sense than owning Strategy. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy common holders have been endlessly abused and diluted so Michael Saylor can keep his Ponzi afloat and avoid selling bitcoin, with the company issuing MSTR shares to raise USD cash. x.comÂ
Strategy's bitcoin flywheel doesn't work in a bear market: below 1x mNAV, issuing stock to buy bitcoin loses money, so it defends the share price instead. It spent $139 million last week and bought zero bitcoin, putting raised money into its own stock, and until mNAV gets back above 1 it can't buy a single coin. @JamesIIIIIII adds that below 1x mNAV the flywheel becomes a treadmill, since the balance-sheet story works only while the market pays a premium for the wrapper. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy's premium looks exposed now that its 'never sell Bitcoin' story is retired. Selling 32 of 843,706 BTC is a rounding error, but it reveals a structured, dividend-driven mechanism to liquidate BTC when preferred stock obligations require it. Strategy has five preferred series, some paying 10-11.5%, and those payments don't care what bitcoin does. Saylor's math that bitcoin need only grow 2.3% a year to cover dividends forever holds only if bitcoin cooperates. x.comÂ
Strategy's share price is a bet on the next buyer, not on anything that produces cash. It filed a $20.8B net loss for the first half of 2026, an accounting fact about bitcoin's price, yet the stock rose this month. Neither produces a dollar, so investors are pricing a chain of strangers. x.comÂ
Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy sold some bitcoin after saying it never would, making it the biggest scam company ever. Director Jarrod Patten then sold 22,300 shares in the open market at an average $152.60. x.com x.comÂ
Strategy selling bitcoin breaks the story and the brand of Michael Saylor and his company, whatever the reason. Saylor attributes the sales to capital management, but for a company built on continuously buying bitcoin and never selling, the move undercuts its core identity. x.comÂ
Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.comÂ
Strategy isn't a buy even at about 0.8x the value of its bitcoin holdings. The discount reflects market skepticism about management, liquidity and governance, as investors price in execution risk and potential structural issues beyond the BTC exposure. x.com x.comÂ
