Strategy runs a Ponzi-like loop: new capital buys bitcoin, which lifts the stock and attracts more capital, while the business makes almost no organic cash flow and collapses without constant raising. It trades at a big premium to NAV, effectively selling $1 of bitcoin for $1.50, lost $12.5B in Q1 2026, and has now sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 despite Michael Saylor's vow never to sell. Owning bitcoin itself makes more sense than owning Strategy. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's mNAV has dropped below 1, which will make it much harder to issue new shares. The company is valued at just $29.5 billion despite holding over $51 billion of bitcoin, as investors who once treated it like a leveraged bitcoin ETF, issuing shares to buy more bitcoin at a premium, now doubt the whole structure amid serious dilution. x.com  x.com 

Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com  x.com 

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's capital allocation raises red flags. Of $290.6M raised by selling shares, $250M went to its USD reserve and only $28.9M to STRC buybacks, which looks like money set aside to day trade Bitcoin and raises questions of misappropriation. Strategy also sold 1,638 BTC to fund preferred dividends and buybacks. Its CEO dismissing Bitcoin's price and the cost-basis metric as not mattering, beyond each shareholder owning some sats, is a poor message for shareholders. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com  x.com 

Strategy's share price is a bet on the next buyer, not on anything that produces cash. It filed a $20.8B net loss for the first half of 2026, an accounting fact about bitcoin's price, yet the stock rose this month. Neither produces a dollar, so investors are pricing a chain of strangers. x.com 

Strategy's premium is the whole engine of its model, and it is compressing in real time. Per @AdamBLiv, Strategy added about 53,000 bitcoin in three weeks, lifting its stack 7%, while its shares rose only 0.7%. x.com 

Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.com 

Strategy is no longer just a levered bitcoin proxy but a credit engine that must dilute common equity and sell bitcoin to keep its capital structure afloat. It sold bitcoin below its average cost basis to buy back STRC preferred shares, breaking its "never sell" thesis. It also raised $653M through at-the-market common stock sales toward a $4.65B cash reserve, prioritizing preferred dividend coverage over buying bitcoin, which exposes the rising cost of its preferred stack. x.com