Falling STRC prices raise its effective yield, increasing Strategy's dividend burden and tying the instrument to occasional Bitcoin sales despite its large holdings. Saylor is promoting STRC's 12% yield paid twice a month, and the higher it is, the faster Strategy sells Bitcoin. Replying to @Blockcastcc's report of Peter Schiff's warning that Bitcoin could fall toward $20,000, Strategy should sell everything and repay: preferred holders can be paid, but common holders would be wiped out. x.com  … Show more

Strategy has stopped being a bitcoin company and become a yield flywheel, diluting the stock or selling bitcoin week after week to keep the yield, despite claims all year that it was well capitalized. Per @DeItaone, it raised $333.7 million selling 3.46 million shares through its ATM program last week and bought no bitcoin, using proceeds for preferred dividends, $132.2 million of STRC buybacks and cash reserves. As @ShevY_xx put it, the yield is now the product and the coin just collateral. … Show more

Strategy shares and STRC will do fine as bitcoin rises, but the financial engineering is too complex. As bitcoin climbs, Strategy should pay off debt, use its bitcoin as collateral for the cheapest capital and buy more, a simpler, more antifragile structure the market could trust and that would ease S&P inclusion. Instead it has too many knobs, and such complexity sometimes blows up. A share sale that cut the stock 3% shows the dilution drag that retiring preferreds and debt would end. x.com  … Show more

Strategy's funding machine is breaking as its STRC preferred trades far below $100 par, threatening a death spiral. STRC pays about 11.5% and lets Strategy buy bitcoin only while near par; at a new low of about $82, issuance stops, yet cash dividends are still due. Cash has fallen from $2.25 billion to about $1 billion, and Strategy sold 32 BTC in late May to cover STRC obligations. Higher payouts mean more bitcoin sales, which hit bitcoin's price and confidence, pushing STRC lower again. x.com 

Strategy needs to generate revenue, such as yield on its bitcoin, to reduce its reliance on diluting common shareholders. It has bought no bitcoin for 35 days even as bitcoin rose, while buying back STRC preferred below par. Dilution was the only option for a long time, but it cannot remain the model. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Raising Strategy's STRC rate could lock common shareholders into costly dividends after sentiment improves. STRC is six times SATA's size; each 0.5-point hike costs $43m a year on existing shares, without evidence it can sustain par. Buybacks have pushed STRC toward par; as Bitcoin rises and daily payouts start, it will return to par at 12%. Reversing a hike without serious backlash may be difficult for 5-10 years. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's capital allocation raises red flags. Of $290.6M raised by selling shares, $250M went to its USD reserve and only $28.9M to STRC buybacks, which looks like money set aside to day trade Bitcoin and raises questions of misappropriation. Strategy also sold 1,638 BTC to fund preferred dividends and buybacks. Its CEO dismissing Bitcoin's price and the cost-basis metric as not mattering, beyond each shareholder owning some sats, is a poor message for shareholders. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is turning to selling bitcoin to rescue its troubled STRC preferred program, which points toward bankruptcy. It launched a Bitcoin Monetization Program that lets it sell BTC to fund operations, per Watcher.Guru, and the news sent the preferred up 10%, meaning it would sell bitcoin low to support STRC high. x.com 

Daily STRC dividends advance Strategy's Bitcoin financing machine. Shareholders approved the payments, and Strategy's Bitcoin printer is unstoppable. x.com 

Strategy's STRC preferred was never as safe as a money market fund, and if both STRC and MSTR share dilution fail, the only way left to pay dividends is selling bitcoin. Believing STRC would stay at par forever while paying a junk-like 12% was financial illiteracy; per @betirement, it has now fallen below $90. Strategy says its bitcoin reserve gives it 32 years of dividend coverage. x.com  x.com