Strategy runs a Ponzi-like loop: new capital buys bitcoin, which lifts the stock and attracts more capital, while the business makes almost no organic cash flow and collapses without constant raising. It trades at a big premium to NAV, effectively selling $1 of bitcoin for $1.50, lost $12.5B in Q1 2026, and has now sold bitcoin for the first time since 2022 despite Michael Saylor's vow never to sell. Owning bitcoin itself makes more sense than owning Strategy. x.com  x.com 

Strategy has stopped being a bitcoin company and become a yield flywheel, diluting the stock or selling bitcoin week after week to keep the yield, despite claims all year that it was well capitalized. Per @DeItaone, it raised $333.7 million selling 3.46 million shares through its ATM program last week and bought no bitcoin, using proceeds for preferred dividends, $132.2 million of STRC buybacks and cash reserves. As @ShevY_xx put it, the yield is now the product and the coin just collateral. … Show more

Strategy's accretive Bitcoin accumulation has raised net backing per share, lowering the premium needed to revisit its $543 intraday high. At $98,000 Bitcoin, backing rose from $127 to $160 since November 2024, cutting the required net mNAV from 4.3x to 3.4x. A 2.5x premium at $200,000-$250,000 Bitcoin would imply roughly $896-$1,131; 2.5x is plausible at peak euphoria, not expected at $126,000. Premiums depend on Bitcoin momentum and sentiment, which Strategy cannot control. x.com  x.com 

Strategy common holders have been endlessly abused and diluted so Michael Saylor can keep his Ponzi afloat and avoid selling bitcoin, with the company issuing MSTR shares to raise USD cash. x.com 

Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Strategy's model of lending against bitcoin holds up because a rising reserve asset sets a hurdle for investment, not a prohibition. If bitcoin rises 20% and an enterprise turns $100 into $140, it still grows wealth in bitcoin terms by 16.7%. The hurdle also falls as bitcoin matures, like any asset whose prospective return drops as its price rises. From 2013 through 2025, simply holding bitcoin beat almost any effort, but early adoption is a poor discount rate for every future investment. x.com 

Strategy's board-approved framework allowing bitcoin sales is a pressure valve that signals building stress and could start a downward spiral. Its $2.55B USD reserve covers only 17 months of dividend and interest payments, its 847,000 BTC carry about a $13B unrealized loss, and the stock fell almost 30% in a week. Because Strategy holds 2.8% of all bitcoin, even small sales would be seen instantly, panicking MSTR holders whose thesis is never selling and making new equity raises harder. x.com 

Strategy selling bitcoin breaks the story and the brand of Michael Saylor and his company, whatever the reason. Saylor attributes the sales to capital management, but for a company built on continuously buying bitcoin and never selling, the move undercuts its core identity. x.com 

Strategy might be undervalued because it holds far more Bitcoin than the first time its stock traded at the same price. At $140.51 today, it holds 848,517 BTC, versus 193,000 BTC the first time shares reached $140.51. x.com  x.com 

Strategy is no longer just a levered bitcoin proxy but a credit engine that must dilute common equity and sell bitcoin to keep its capital structure afloat. It sold bitcoin below its average cost basis to buy back STRC preferred shares, breaking its "never sell" thesis. It also raised $653M through at-the-market common stock sales toward a $4.65B cash reserve, prioritizing preferred dividend coverage over buying bitcoin, which exposes the rising cost of its preferred stack. x.com