Ren
Head of AI, Ex-Product Manager, AI Supply-Chain Bottlenecks
AST SpaceMobile has solid fundamentals, with the SpaceX IPO as a catalyst. A weekly close above $92 with conviction would mark a breakout from a third flag pattern, and clearing $96-97 resistance would confirm continuation. Given the volatile macro backdrop, weakness toward $74-75, the 0.5 Fibonacci level and former channel, would be a gift. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart is curling higher on heavy volume to reclaim its moving averages, a setup that could push it past its previous all-time high around $100-$102 and run up into the SpaceX IPO. x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's selloff on SpaceX news looks excessive because the satellite-connectivity market could support multiple winners; AST need not be close to SpaceX to have a place. A further fall would make the opportunity more interesting, and AST would probably be the pick over SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is losing the nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio it wanted to SpaceX. The stock fell 10.5% on nearly five times normal volume, and the chart's count is in a third wave down. If 47.57 holds, a bounce could target 68 and 74; if it breaks, the target is 31. A bounce is not yet a bottom. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab are setting up for potential breakouts on news of the SpaceX IPO. x.comÂ
