Gabz
Stock & Crypto Trader, SuperTrend Indicator Owner
AST SpaceMobile's story did not break even though its price fell 50% in a month. It still has $3.5 billion in cash, 60 carrier deals and 45 BlueBird satellites going up by year-end. The bounce came at $63.51, right at cloud support, and the stock remains in a long-term uptrend above its 200-week moving average. x.comÂ
SpaceX's move makes AST SpaceMobile's future pricing power more uncertain and leaves less room for delays. That makes AST a bearish lean here, despite the real possibility that mobile carriers back it more aggressively if Starlink goes after their customers. AST can still succeed, but execution is far from guaranteed and competition is getting stronger. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's reliance on competitor SpaceX for satellite launches weakens its moat further. SpaceX has bought its own spectrum, raising competitive risk. Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS over the pace of 2026-27 launches and SpaceX's potential to limit launch availability or undercut service pricing, though the bank remains constructive beyond 2027. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's selloff on SpaceX news looks excessive because the satellite-connectivity market could support multiple winners; AST need not be close to SpaceX to have a place. A further fall would make the opportunity more interesting, and AST would probably be the pick over SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab and SpaceX are the preferred space names as SpaceX is killing it right now, while AST SpaceMobile has only a very small chance of returning to its highs. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile is likely to suffer more, and for longer, from the SpaceX IPO's drawdown because it is a smaller stock. Weeks after listing, everyone who bought SpaceX is underwater, and the whole space sector has fallen alongside it. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's latest quarter shows how far it remains from making money, a very different result from Rocket Lab's. Per @StockSavvyShay, AST's Q1 revenue was $15M versus $37M expected and EPS was -$0.66 versus -$0.20, with 2026 revenue guidance of $175M below estimates, though it holds $3.5B in cash and targets 45 satellites by end-2026. x.comÂ