Coinvo Trading
Full-Time Trader, Public Trade Commentary
AST SpaceMobile is set to catch up with Rocket Lab's parabolic run now that the SpaceX IPO has brought capital and attention to the space sector, even though that IPO disappointed. Rocket Lab broke out earlier this year and went parabolic, and AST, as a smaller stock, is at the same stage now. x.com
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's reliance on competitor SpaceX for satellite launches weakens its moat further. SpaceX has bought its own spectrum, raising competitive risk. Piper Sandler downgraded ASTS over the pace of 2026-27 launches and SpaceX's potential to limit launch availability or undercut service pricing, though the bank remains constructive beyond 2027. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's selloff on SpaceX news looks excessive because the satellite-connectivity market could support multiple winners; AST need not be close to SpaceX to have a place. A further fall would make the opportunity more interesting, and AST would probably be the pick over SpaceX. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX's move makes AST SpaceMobile's future pricing power more uncertain and leaves less room for delays. That makes AST a bearish lean here, despite the real possibility that mobile carriers back it more aggressively if Starlink goes after their customers. AST can still succeed, but execution is far from guaranteed and competition is getting stronger. x.com x.com
Rocket Lab and SpaceX are the preferred space names as SpaceX is killing it right now, while AST SpaceMobile has only a very small chance of returning to its highs. x.com
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and other space stocks face being dragged toward zero by SpaceX's stock drop. With SpaceX valued above $1 trillion, it can buy them out with all-equity offers, the mega-cap way, and that is already happening. x.com
AST SpaceMobile's technology would be orders of magnitude inferior to SpaceX's even if it delivers on its plans. That adds a product-competition risk to its need for more capital and further launch delays while relying on SpaceX, now its leading competitor, for launch. x.com
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.com
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.com