DVB
Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder
AST SpaceMobile's latest quarter shows how far it remains from making money, a very different result from Rocket Lab's. Per @StockSavvyShay, AST's Q1 revenue was $15M versus $37M expected and EPS was -$0.66 versus -$0.20, with 2026 revenue guidance of $175M below estimates, though it holds $3.5B in cash and targets 45 satellites by end-2026. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab offers better risk-reward than AST SpaceMobile because it controls its own launches. AST will always depend on outside launch partners, and each one adds execution, scheduling and cost risk, while a failure means rebuilding, relaunching and higher insurance. Rocket Lab owns launch end to end, so it can fix mistakes, launch when it wants and control costs. In a bad case, SpaceX dominates direct-to-cell at cost while AST arrives two years late with production and deorbit problems. x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's direct-to-phone satellite network makes it an extremely bullish long-term space-economy bet. Partnerships with more than 60 mobile operators representing over 3 billion potential subscribers and about $1.3 billion in contracted revenue backlog support the case. It targets initial, intermittent broadband coverage in five countries before end-2026; its market cap is roughly half Rocket Lab's, though both face significant execution risks. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab and SpaceX are the preferred space names as SpaceX is killing it right now, while AST SpaceMobile has only a very small chance of returning to its highs. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are not buys because their sales multiples are too high, even after the selloff. Rocket Lab trades at 30x sales after a 14% drawdown, while AST SpaceMobile trades at 138x sales. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's selloff on SpaceX news looks excessive because the satellite-connectivity market could support multiple winners; AST need not be close to SpaceX to have a place. A further fall would make the opportunity more interesting, and AST would probably be the pick over SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab look more lucrative as shorts than semiconductors, given extreme sales multiples. Rocket Lab trades at 127x sales at $150, and AST SpaceMobile at 588x at $130 after already missing its Q1 revenue target. Both could rise another 30-50% first, making now or the week of June 22 the window to short, and still trade at $50-60 a share in 12-15 months. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile looks attractive in the $40s despite SpaceX paying $8B for Grain spectrum, a price AST could not match. The stock appears to be pricing in near-complete pessimism, including an anticipated delay of beta service into early 2027. SpaceX's aggressive approach to mobile carriers may favor AST, but carriers continuing to brush it off would break the thesis. SpaceX was the likelier bidder, though AST had reasons for optimism. x.com x.comÂ
No rocket or space company anywhere makes money, making the 'space is the future' investment pitch a bad bet. SpaceX is shown at -$4.9B; Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Planet Labs also have negative figures, ranging from -$131.20M to -$618.76M. x.comÂ
