Deep Value Investing
Value Investor, Long-Term Compounding
No rocket or space company anywhere makes money, making the 'space is the future' investment pitch a bad bet. SpaceX is shown at -$4.9B; Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Planet Labs also have negative figures, ranging from -$131.20M to -$618.76M. x.comÂ
Orbital data centers may take far longer than investors expect, if they happen at all. SpaceX sells compute on Earth and invests in power and cooling there, widening the hype-reality gap. SpaceX, Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire could be dead money for years while the vision catches up. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
The orbital economy is far too large for only SpaceX to win, making space stocks the easiest 100x opportunity yet. By 2050-2070, every business on Earth could have a counterpart in space; some public companies may fail, but the few winners could create enormous wealth. The easy money is over, so AST SpaceMobile, Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, MDA Space and SpaceX belong in a separate retirement account that is never traded, not a price-action trade. x.comÂ
SpaceX's competitive threat makes AST SpaceMobile less attractive at these levels than SpaceX and Rocket Lab. AST SpaceMobile's weekly chart shows a downtrend and strong outflows, though the stock is near marked support. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's negative fundamentals make this a time for patience. Trailing net income is -$811 million, free cash flow -$1.74 billion and EPS -$2.14; wait for a catalyst change, specifically growing earnings. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's revenue ambitions look implausible against current sales and the risk of overbuilding chips. Revenue is $14 billion this quarter, and even the Street's $120 billion forecast for next year looks aggressive. Its costs are within its control, leaving the risk heavily skewed against investors. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile's economics remain unproven while its finances are strained by heavy capex, negative operating cash flow, rising debt and frequent stock issuance. The forecast opportunity is the only positive; Piper Sandler's cut to its target to $54 from $98 is significant. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's growing Space Systems business positions it to provide more than launches for the space economy. It generated $189.5M in Q2, 81% of revenue; if its pending Iridium acquisition closes, it would gain a global satellite communications network. At about $51, this is one of the most compelling long-term opportunities in the space sector over 3-5 years, provided it keeps executing. Neutron's launch has slipped to 2027, and execution risks remain. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's price bets on the most optimistic version of its results a decade out while it is still losing money, so the market is pricing a story rather than the company. Narrative now earns a premium and earnings do not, as with IonQ and AI-server-labeled Dell and HPE, and one quarterly miss means exit. This can last a long time in liquid, risk-on markets, as 1999 dot-coms and 2021 SPACs showed, so a drop is not imminent; buyers now are buying how long sentiment lasts. x.comÂ
