Intel's data-center and foundry growth could outlast its PC-driven weak guidance. Data-center revenue rose 78% to $7.3bn and foundry revenue rose 58%, but PCs still account for about half the business and management expects their slowdown through at least the first half of next year. Q4 revenue and margin guidance disappointed, and $0.17 of quarterly EPS came from a mark-to-market gain. The selloff prices in the PC problem, not the turnaround. Overweight; $130 target. x.com  x.com 

AMD's strong Q2 set up a classic sell-the-news reaction against a stock that had priced in perfection. Capex hit $808M, nearly 3x what many modeled, compressing free cash flow. The roughly $13B Q3 guide beat the $12.5B consensus but not whispers near $14B, with growth slowing to about 41%. Management guided no near-term margin expansion, server CPU supply is constrained, and Helios and the multi-gigawatt Anthropic, OpenAI and Meta deals are mainly a 2027 story. x.com 

AMD is a beast after crushing its first-quarter earnings. Per @StockSavvyShay, revenue of $10.25B beat the $9.85B estimate, data center revenue reached $5.8B versus $5.6B expected, gross margin hit 55%, and second-quarter revenue guidance of $11.2B topped the $10.5B estimate. x.com 

AMD's Q2 was not good enough for a stock that had rallied 100 points off its lows in a monster year, when the Street wanted a blowout. Adjusted EPS of $1.66 beat the $1.61 consensus, revenue of $11.54B beat $11.31B, and Q3 revenue guidance of $13B, plus or minus $300M, topped the $12.51B consensus. The raised capex is also an issue. x.com  x.com  x.com 

AMD looks likely to fall after its May 5 earnings, as it has risen on earnings only once in the last nine reports and dropped from $240 to $192 after the last one. The long-term growth outlook is fine, and AMD has outperformed Nvidia from around $100, but chasing it near $300 makes no sense. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

AMD's server CPUs have become a general compute supercycle in their own right, and that is under-appreciated. Management's 2030 server CPU market estimate rose from about $60 billion at Investor Day to over $120 billion and now about $220 billion; such revisions deserve some skepticism, but the business supports them. Server CPU revenue hit a fifth straight record, with cloud and enterprise both up over 70% on higher units and prices, and data-center growth is producing operating leverage. x.com  … Show more

Insufficient substrate supply may cap AMD's growth because the company has not secured enough capacity. The author says limited substrate availability drove AMD's lowered guidance, making supply-chain execution the constraint on how far it can grow. This adds an execution risk to the earlier concern that AMD is too expensive to buy despite strong results. x.com  x.com 

AMD now has to be extraordinary to justify its valuation, because it is priced on what it must deliver in 2027, not on past results. Despite revenue up 50%, data center up 107%, triple-digit profit growth and above-consensus guidance, the stock fell about 8% after hours; great is not enough when great is already priced in. x.com 

AMD went from limping to sprinting in Q2 FY26, earning an A grade. Revenue rose 50% to $11.54 billion, gross margin jumped from 40% to 54%, and operating income swung from a $134 million loss to a $1.99 billion profit. Net income rose 163%, and EPS climbed from $0.47 to $1.41. x.com 

AMD is a bearish setup, featured as the short idea in the weekend newsletter. x.com