Deckers looks like a value trap, as fashion cyclicality has destroyed many value investors. Revenue is decelerating quickly, EBIT margins are double those of a decade ago, and there has not been a single insider purchase during its 63% drawdown. x.com 

Deckers looks exposed to sector-wide discounting, as a struggling Nike is about to drag down the whole footwear sector with promotions. The lowest Street price target on Deckers was cut to $70, a bad sign, since an analyst is unlikely to turn bearish without good information. x.com  x.com 

Deckers Outdoor is a decent safety play as a very profitable business trading at a low multiple, now with a buyback authorization of up to 33% of its market cap. Growth was somewhat slower than expected and guidance is mediocre, but a return to growth could make the stock jump. x.com 

Nike beat the quarter but torched the year, a guidance reset rather than a miss. It sees fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS of $1.15-1.35, a $1.25 midpoint versus $1.69 expected, and revenue declining by a high-single-digit percentage. Inventories fell, but the guide is horrendous. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Crocs is cheap enough to be a takeover target for Deckers or private equity: 2026 EPS guidance of $13.20-13.75 puts it at about 7.3x adjusted earnings, and it bought back 10% of shares over the past year. It beat and raised, with the Crocs brand down 1% and HeyDude down 13% in a reset. Skechers was bought out last year at 8.6x EBITDA, equal to $144 for Crocs. A 30-40% premium could suffice since management lost credibility after overpaying for HeyDude. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Deckers Outdoor is the pick among beaten-down athletic brands, as it is likely buying back 5-10% of its float at these levels. x.com 

Lululemon is probably going lower because sales and margins are imploding while inventory grows, and a new unproven CEO is coming in. Q3 guidance calls for revenue down 10-11%, North America down mid-teens and inventory up low single digits; full-year revenue should fall 5-7% with inventory up mid single digits. Even granting $6 of annualized EPS versus a ~$4 run rate, 12x for an off-trend retailer implies about $70, versus $100 after an 18% drop. x.com  x.com 

Nike looks overvalued at about 25.6x forward earnings for a business guiding to high-single-digit revenue declines. At $32 on $1.25 of EPS, per the lowered guidance @TrendSpider reports, plus a 5% dividend, tobacco stocks like Altria should triple if that is the going rate for shrinking sales. Nike does not merit a tobacco multiple: it angered its distributors, faces more premium rivals and new entrants, has less loyal customers, is no government-mandated duopoly and pays for costly marketing. … Show more

Netflix, Microsoft, AppLovin, Broadcom, Deckers, Adobe and The Trade Desk look disconnected from their earnings growth, which Bill Ackman says share prices ultimately follow. Over the past year Netflix earnings rose 35% while the stock fell 44%; Microsoft earnings rose 29.8%, stock down 22.8%; AppLovin 110% vs. up 15%; Broadcom 125% vs. up 28%; Deckers 11% vs. up 1%; Adobe 11.8% vs. down 35%; The Trade Desk 9% vs. down 76%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Lululemon is a value trap with no sign its business decline is reversing. Comparable sales in the Americas fell 10% in Q2 2026, worse than Nike's, and management now expects full-year revenue to fall 5-7%, with consensus estimates likely to be cut. Earnings are projected to drop to $1.3 billion by 2028, about 30% below 2025. The trailing P/E of 9x looks cheap, but the forward P/E is higher at 11x as earnings fall, despite the stock losing 75% of its peak value. x.com