Deckers' lowered FY27 revenue guidance adds evidence of slowing growth behind the value-trap concern. Guidance is now $5.70B-$5.725B, down from $5.86B-$5.91B and below the $5.88B estimate; the stock trades at about 10 times next-twelve-month earnings. x.com 

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Deckers Outdoor is a decent safety play as a very profitable business trading at a low multiple, now with a buyback authorization of up to 33% of its market cap. Growth was somewhat slower than expected and guidance is mediocre, but a return to growth could make the stock jump. x.com 

Deckers looks like a value trap, as fashion cyclicality has destroyed many value investors. Revenue is decelerating quickly, EBIT margins are double those of a decade ago, and there has not been a single insider purchase during its 63% drawdown. x.com 

Nike's big-brand advantage from the 1980s and 1990s is over. Social media changed the rules of the game, young people don't follow sports like they used to, and the edge from Chinese production is gone because almost anyone can slap a label on a shoe. x.com 

Deckers Outdoor is the pick among beaten-down athletic brands, as it is likely buying back 5-10% of its float at these levels. x.com 

Nike's turnaround is looking much longer than bulls expected, and about 17x forward earnings is not cheap for a business growing low single digits. China sales fell 26% FX-neutral while Adidas' Greater China sales grew 15%, pointing to a Nike problem, not a China problem. Sportswear fell low double digits with Dunk revenue down about 50%, Jordan fell mid-teens, and most PACE savings are expected only in FY29-30; Performance grew high single digits. The must-buy price is $25. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike looks overvalued at about 25.6x forward earnings for a business guiding to high-single-digit revenue declines. At $32 on $1.25 of EPS, per the lowered guidance @TrendSpider reports, plus a 5% dividend, tobacco stocks like Altria should triple if that is the going rate for shrinking sales. Nike does not merit a tobacco multiple: it angered its distributors, faces more premium rivals and new entrants, has less loyal customers, is no government-mandated duopoly and pays for costly marketing. … Show more

Netflix, Microsoft, AppLovin, Broadcom, Deckers, Adobe and The Trade Desk look disconnected from their earnings growth, which Bill Ackman says share prices ultimately follow. Over the past year Netflix earnings rose 35% while the stock fell 44%; Microsoft earnings rose 29.8%, stock down 22.8%; AppLovin 110% vs. up 15%; Broadcom 125% vs. up 28%; Deckers 11% vs. up 1%; Adobe 11.8% vs. down 35%; The Trade Desk 9% vs. down 76%. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike, like other apparel makers, is uninvestable because a durable moat is near impossible in this business. Consumer preferences keep changing, requiring constant new marketing to keep people excited, and making a physical product leaves an inherently low-margin business with little long-term pricing power. A major turnaround is possible, but the business model gives no confidence in its long-term strength. x.com