A potential Lumentum acquisition could let Marvell pair custom AI chips with the optical infrastructure connecting them. Following Celestial AI, it could become one of the few companies offering both, moving toward an AI-focused version of Broadcom; financing a deal this large remains a major concern. x.com 

Penguin Solutions looks more like memory-cycle strength dressed up as an AI pivot story, and its price has already run ahead of that story. Its legacy AI factory business was concentrated in hyperscaler hardware, and the pivot to enterprise, neocloud and sovereign customers is a rebuild that the numbers do not show yet, with longer sales cycles and delayed bookings. The IP is good, and winning qualifications could change the view, but that needs a real shift first. x.com 

Penguin is in pole position to bring optical memory systems to customers because it was already developing a Photonic Memory Appliance with Celestial AI. Marvell is showing an HBM-and-DDR5 module that creates 33TB memory pools over optical links up to 50 meters, letting memory capacity scale independently of GPUs. x.com 

POET Technologies is a weak company because Celestial AI and Marvell are not going to use its technology. x.com 

POET Technologies is uninvestable because its management has lost the trust of the big players. In April its CFO leaked information that led to the cancellation of Celestial AI and Marvell contracts. Being early in interposers and packaging does not make it a co-packaged optics winner, as others will catch up. Its TFLN partner QCI trails Hyperlight and is stuck on a 6-inch line, with no 8-inch wafer demo yet to show it can scale. x.com  x.com 

Penguin Solutions is interesting for its memory pooling business, not for photonic memory. @aleabitoreddit, to whom the author replies, argues Penguin builds the chassis around Celestial and Marvell's photonic memory IP at an integrator level, still in development collaboration, so buyers chasing photonic memory may be disappointed, though the base business is a legitimate idea. x.com  x.com  x.com 

POET Technologies' customer concentration risk is now becoming reality. Its Celestial AI partnership was never enough to justify owning it, since POET does not execute at Marvell's level and carried clear customer concentration risk. x.com 

Marvell looks well positioned for scale-up compute domains, where interconnect is the wall that limits performance. Scale-up domains should be thought of differently from simply networking racks together, and Marvell's own commentary now focuses on exactly that opportunity. x.com  x.com 

AI inference is hitting a memory limit, and CXL switching, which pools memory across servers, is where the value map changes. HBM is costly and limited per chip, and bigger models outgrow one server. Marvell is the bet on switching as the control point, via XConn and Structera S, now in production. Penguin Solutions makes CXL deployable in its KV cache server. Micron's CXL DRAM is a structural tailwind still tied to DRAM cycles, and Credo sits in the competitive transport layer. x.com  x.com  … Show more

POET's bull case is crushed after Marvell cancelled POET purchase orders tied to Celestial AI following a confidentiality breach. That shifts the focus back to sourcing lasers directly from the scarce CPO laser supplier base. x.com  x.com