POET Technologies' customer concentration risk is now becoming reality. Its Celestial AI partnership was never enough to justify owning it, since POET does not execute at Marvell's level and carried clear customer concentration risk. x.comÂ
Sam Badawi
Stock Analyst, Creator of Origins of Alpha & Quarterly Conviction
POET Technologies is a weak company because Celestial AI and Marvell are not going to use its technology. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' management team is inept, and management quality is make-or-break for investing in a company. POET breached its NDA with Marvell by confirming a purchase order after a short report, and Marvell then cancelled all its Celestial AI orders, per @Kaizen_Investor, sending the stock down almost 50%. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies' 47% one-day plunge was self-inflicted, not a technology problem, making it an easy buy. Marvell, which bought Celestial AI in February, pulled Celestial's orders citing a confidentiality breach after POET's CFO confirmed the order on Stocktwits. The stock has since rebounded 211.67% in two weeks. x.comÂ
POET Technologies is uninvestable because its management has lost the trust of the big players. In April its CFO leaked information that led to the cancellation of Celestial AI and Marvell contracts. Being early in interposers and packaging does not make it a co-packaged optics winner, as others will catch up. Its TFLN partner QCI trails Hyperlight and is stuck on a 6-inch line, with no 8-inch wafer demo yet to show it can scale. x.com x.comÂ
POET's place in the optical stack is weaker than its narrative implied, as Marvell's cancellation of all its orders shows. Marvell cited an NDA breach, but critical suppliers don't get fired over disclosure issues; they get a phone call. If POET were load-bearing or a competitive threat, Marvell would keep orders running or buy it outright, not cancel. A Tier-1 customer is a signal, not a moat, and pilot orders are not validation; if switching suppliers costs little, POET doesn't control a node. … Show more
POET Technologies is the upstream pick-and-shovel for Celestial AI's Photonic Fabric, which Marvell just acquired for about $5B. POET supplies the light source that powers it, and Marvell has the hyperscaler relationships with AWS, Google and Meta to deploy it at scale. Revenue is still early, but once Marvell integrates Celestial and ramps production orders, the market should recognize POET's value; Q3 or Q4 2026 could be the inflection, and patience is required. x.comÂ
POET Technologies' optical interposer is probably not that good, judging by Marvell cancelling all orders over an NDA breach. If the technology were mission-critical, production-ready and hard to replace in a tight supply chain, Marvell would likely have preserved the relationship through penalties or renegotiated terms; cancelling suggests it had alternatives. Its CEO also owns only 0.0083% of the float, less than some individual investors. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
POET's bull case is crushed after Marvell cancelled POET purchase orders tied to Celestial AI following a confidentiality breach. That shifts the focus back to sourcing lasers directly from the scarce CPO laser supplier base. x.com x.comÂ
POET Technologies has a path forward after Marvell in 800G/1.6T pluggables, now confirmed by a Lumilens supply and joint development deal. Lumilens placed an initial $50 million order for POET's Electrical-Optical Interposer engines, potentially exceeding $500 million over five years, with a roadmap through near-package and co-packaged optics. Engineering samples are targeted for late 2026 and production in 2027, subject to development and qualification. POET granted Lumilens warrants at $8.25. … Show more
POET Technologies' management can't be trusted and the company is likely to be blackballed in the near term. As @amitisinvesting recounts, its CFO disclosed a Marvell order on a podcast, sending the stock from $6.80 to $17, before Marvell called it a breach of confidentiality and the shares fell 45% in a day. x.comÂ